Use these horses in Woodbine Mohawk mandatory super high 5
Woodbine Mohawk Park is saying "bye bye" to its current jackpot pool for its super high five on Saturday. Put another way, everything must go, and that everything is US$183,569.88 in the super high five pool plus what is bet on Saturday. The total pool is sure to approach $1 million.
Exotic wagers like the super high five force horseplayers to squeeze their already drained brains to the pulp, since picking the first two finishers is challenge enough, let alone the first five. But don’t worry. I took a keen look at this mandatory-payout race from 30,000 feet in the air, breaching the atmosphere high enough that whatever hallucinations conjured will be possibly helpful. Let’s remember that this is the same reason that we find monks living high in the mountains, and I like to think those monks know something. Maybe even about racing.
So if you like harness racing, are new to harness racing, just looking to bet into something plus-EV or preparing for your get-out race of the day, here are some things to consider ahead of Woodbine Mohawk’s mandatory payout.
A brief overview
Because we are dealing with a six-digit carryover pool, any horseplayer putting dollars into the high five will likely be gambling with positive upside. The carryover total tends to amount to just around whatever the track’s takeout totals, meaning that the wager will likely offer a negative-takeout scenario compared to usual nights where the takeout is 15 percent plus the 50 percent rolled over if no unique combo cashes.
Over the last few mandatory payouts on the standardbred high five, horseplayers haven’t had to be real geniuses to cash. The principles in the betting have tended to perform to odds in these races, in some cases meaning taking the first five betting choices has proven profitable. But this mandatory payout race is thankfully different since the racing office has decided to pin the wager on a different class of horses – a non-winners of four bunch compared to the low-end money-based conditions this bet has landed on in the past.
The sharp ones coming in
On form, there are only three horses in this field who appear on a positive trajectory: No. 2 Beach Tour, No. 3 Come On Artie and No. 7 Kaptain Karlos, not necessarily in that order. Beach Tour offers strong and sustainable speed, which has proven a strong asset over this surface through the years, and enters off a victory against this group.
I am more intrigued by Come On Artie and Kaptain Karlos. Come On Artie is making his fourth start off a layoff, and his positive performances – including a 1:51.3 victory in the class below this last out – signals that he must’ve had issues now remedied after his clunker mile on Oct. 23. The main question for him is whether he will have a solid flow to follow, since he’ll possibly be coming from off the speed.
Kaptain Karlos appeared a winner in his most recent start despite how the line reads on his past performances. He showed solid early foot from a tough spot at the inside and had no room to race while bullheaded through the lane. From this outside post, he should fire forward early and be a main factor for the win as long as he doesn’t find trouble again.
For me, I’d look to put Come On Artie and Kaptain Karlos on top of my tickets. Beach Tour has a chance to take this field gate to wire, but he honestly seems more like one to at least hit the ticket.
The question marks
I have zero clue what to do with No. 6 Stormalong. Doug McNair has a way of toying with his competition in these mandatory payout races in ways that maybe are that obvious on paper. But this guy only making his second start up north for the new barn doesn’t merit the short price he possibly is at post time, so I’m torn on how he’ll fit with this group. He has the speed and staying ability to hit the ticket, but of course when using a short-priced horse like this we would want to structure accordingly.
No. 4 Acapulco Sunburn is my kind of horse for this race. While he is just the second choice on the morning line, he to me is a sure-fire underneath horse we could possibly wheel combos around. He’s a fast horse, but he’s shown a tendency to wait for other horses through the long Mohawk stretch, which is not a strong asset for winning races I’ve found. I would wheel this horse to finish either third or fourth, which should give us some wiggle room on the other positions for combos.
The bombs
Longshots we’ll want to land on the ticket include No. 1 Talk Racy to Me, No. 5 Bettor Than Pride, No. 8 Reign Supreme and No. 12 Boozer. All of these horses should go at good odds, but whether it be their racing style or post position they seem more advantageous to try and luck into in the underneath spots. All this said, we can likely toss No. 9 Tobins Profit and No. 10 Sun Chip. Tobins Profit doesn’t seem fast enough to contend with this group from this outside post, and Sun Chip is no factor in this race if he doesn’t leave the gate, and he likely should not leave the gate given the makeup of this field.
Ticket thoughts
A rough combo I might punch would be something like 3,7 / 2,3,7 / 4 / 1,5,6,8,12 / 1,5,6,8,12, which would be $16 for the minimum $0.20. That leaves room for us to wheel other positions, like putting the long shots in for the second spot and hope the race unfolds accordingly. My only self-critique is the inclusion of No. 6 Stormalong on the bottom just because he likely goes a favorite in the race and he should finish within the top five. With a horse like him, you may find better success building wheels surrounding the No. 4 Acapulco Sunburn and him.
Ray Cotolo writes for Harnessland. Coverage of Woodbine Mohawk Park at Horse Racing Nation is made possible through a sponsorship by Woodbine Entertainment Group.
