Utah vs. Northwestern Prediction, Preview, and Odds
The Utah Utes, out of the Pac-12, will take on the Northwestern Wildcats, out of the Big Ten, in the SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl on Saturday, December, 23rd. The Utes went 8-4 on the season as they shuffled through a series of quarterbacks after opening the season as one of the favorites to win the Pac-12. The Northwestern Wildcats finished the season at 7-5 and won each of their final three games to earn a surprising bowl berth this season. The opening kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM EST.
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Still Bowling
The Utah Utes finished the season at 8-4 despite juggling through quarterbacks all year after projected starter Cam Rising missed the entire season recovering from a knee injury suffered in last year's bowl game. The Utes ended their stay in the Pac-12 with a home win over Colorado to close the season, 23-17. The Utes had 329 yards of total offense in completing their 10th-straight winning season. They had 268 yards on the ground and 61 yards through the air. Quarterback Luke Bottari made his first start of the season and went 6-of-10 for 61 yards passing and had 11 yards rushing including two touchdowns. Running back Jaylon Glover had a career-high 107 yards rushing for his first-career 100-yard game. Defensively, Utah held Colorado to 262 yards of total offense and just 13 first downs.
As is the case throughout College Football, the Utes will be playing the bowl game without several key players. Quarterback Nate Johnson, who was tied for the team lead in rushing touchdowns, has entered the transfer portal thus elevating Bottari to the starting job in the last game. Quarterback Bryson Barnes will get the start in the Las Vegas Bowl but it will be his final start for the Utes because he too is entering the transfer portal. WR Mikey Matthews also entered the transfer portal after grabbing 29 balls this season for 261 yards. Another key offensive weapon, WR Devaughn Vele, the team's top receiver, opted out of the Las Vegas Bowl to prepare for the draft. Vele led or tied for the team lead in catches (43), receiving yards (593), and touchdown catches (3).
Defensively, the Utes will be missing just one key player, CB JaTravis Broughton, that also entered the transfer portal. Broughton had 36 tackles on the season and two passes defensed. The defense is led by Jonah Ellis and Levani Damuni. Ellis leads the team with 12 sacks on the season while Damuni led the team in tackles with 75 including 38 solo tackles. Cole Bishop and Lander Barton are tied for the team lead with two interceptions.
"Our guys have historically done a great job of preparing. It's a reward for the guys and there are a lot of activities, but at the same time, you don't want to go down with any other mission than to win the game." Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham said of the upcoming bowl game.
Utah comes into this matchup looking for its 9th win of the season and the 12th bowl win under Whittingham. Overall, they are 17-8 in bowl games all-time and 11-5 under Whittingham. This will be Utah's sixth appearance in the Las Vegas Bowl, winning four of the team's previous five appearances. The Utes are 83rd in the country in points allowed per game. They are 86th in total offense on the season, 58th in rushing and 116th in passing. The Utes are 72nd in the nation in redzone offense this year as well. They have been protective of the football this season, ranked 12th in givewaways on the season.
Defensively, Utah is 22nd in points allowed this season. They are 22nd in total defense, 11th against the run and 80th against the pass. The Utes are 46th in the country in red zone defense this season. They have not been successful in creating turnovers this year. Utah is just 92nd in the nation in takeaways.
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Closing with a Flourish
It has been a tumultuous year for the Northwestern Wildcats football program but one that is seemingly ending on a high note. The season started with the dismissal of longtime head coach Pat Fitzgerald due to a preseason hazing scandal that led to a slow start culminating in a 17-9 loss at Nebraska to drop the team to 3-4 under new head coach David Braun. Instead of packing it in, the Wildcats rallied to win four of their last five games to gain bowl eligibility. Braun has earned the permanent head coaching job after leading the team to a six-win improvement from last season.
"A lesser-character team could have packed it up and said, 'You know what? The season's not ours.' They could've found all sorts of excuses and explanations for why we're not going to have the season we want," Braun said. "That's what has exceeded my expectations, is the way this group has continued to respond through adversity."
Northwestern hasn't been impacted by the transfer portal as much as Utah has. Only guard Josh Priebe has decided to transfer out and will miss the Las Vegas Bowl. The Wildcats are led by quarterback Ben Bryant. Bryant missed four games this season but still finished with 1,585 yards through the air including 11 touchdowns and six interceptions. The Wildcats had three different running backs gain at least 20 yards per game but were led by Cam Porter. Porter played in all 12 games and rushed for 638 yards and four touchdowns on the season. Eight different players caught touchdowns for the Wildcats this season led by wide receiver Cam Johnson. Johnson had 50 catches and five touchdowns on the season.
Defensively, the Wildcats were led by linebacker Bryce Gallagher who led the team with 110 tackles. He also had a sack and an interception on the season. DL Aiden Hubbard led the team with six sacks and had 7.5 tackles for loss on the season. Northwestern's secondary is led by sophomore Devin Turner. Turner had one interception on the season but also had five pass breakups to lead the team. Linebacker Xander Mueller is also a player to watch, finishing second on the team in tackles, second in sacks, first in interceptions and first in tackles for loss.
Northwestern comes into this game hot with three straight wins and four in the last five games. They are also hot in bowl games, winning each of their last four bowl games including one over Utah in the 2018 Holiday Bowl. The Wildcats offense is 93rd in the country in scoring. They are 118th in total offense, ranking 128th on the ground and 88th through the air. The Wildcats are 16th in the red zone this season. The Wildcats, like Utah, has done an exceptional job protecting the football ranked 9th in giveaways this season.
Defensively, the Wildcats are 49th in scoring defense. They are 38th in total defense, 62nd against the run and 25th against the pass. The Wildcats are also 57th in red zone defense. Finally, Northwestern's defense has been opportunistic this season. They are ranked 24th in the country in takeaways.
Key Injuries: DL D. Olges (undisclosed) is questionable.
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Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
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I'm going with the Wildcats to pull off the upset on Saturday. The Utes have played admirably this season, dealing with injuries and change at the most important position on the field. Barnes is supposed to get the nod on Saturday and he will be appearing in his 11th game of the season and final before hitting the transfer portal. Barnes has just a 58% completion percentage and has 12 touchdowns on the season. He will square off against a Wildcats' defense that has been tough on the pass, ranked 25th in the country. With that in mind, I fully expect the Utes to try to control this game on the ground. While Northwestern is 62nd against the run, they do have a tandem of linebackers in Gallagher and Mueller that can pursue the football. Also, keep in mind that Northwestern finished 24th in the nation in takeaways this season. Offensively, it will be Northwestern's passing attack, ranked 49th in the country, against the 84th-ranked Utes' pass defense. NW QB Bryant has been very good since returning from injury and should have the advantage in this matchup. The Utes are not known for their ability to create turnovers, finishing just 92nd in the country in takeaways. Northwestern is also considerably better in the red zone, ranked 16th in the country compared to the Utes' 72nd ranking. Ultimately, this feels like a field goal game to me so I will scoop up the three points gratefully. If you want to be bold, take Northwestern with a generous money line. They have won four of five and four straight bowl games and also have suffered far fewer losses via the transfer portal and opt-out options. This game feels like it will mean more to the Wildcats to close out a complete turnaround season.
Take Northwestern +6.5
Prediction: Northwestern +6.5
Full-Game Total Pick
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This total has dropped a point since opening at 42.5 and for good reason. Utah's best road to victory will be to pound the ball right at the Wildcats and control tempo. Despite playing in the high-scoring Pac-12 this season, the Utes finished just 83rd in the nation in points per game. Northwestern is certainly used to ground and pound coming out of the Big Ten Conference and the Wildcats finished just 93rd in the nation in points per game. Additionally, the Utes have not been markedly successful in the red zone offensively this season so there should be several drives that end unsuccessfully. This could very well be a game decided by the kicking game and one that touchdowns come at a premium.
Take the under.
Prediction: Under 41.5
Mark has been a sports fanatic since childhood. He is also an avid follower of sports analytics and has used it in his own betting analysis for over two decades. Now we have Mark on our team here at Stat Salt. He holds degrees in marketing, broadcasting, and English and uses this vast array of assets to dissect and analyze game matchups. Mark will provide you with a wide variety of statistics to consider and a strong opinion in each matchup that he covers. Please follow him daily for an up-to-the-minute analysis of all the important games.
