Utah vs. USC odds, props, predictions: Caleb Williams, Trojans look to get back on track against Utes

USC (6-1 SU, 2-5 ATS) is coming off a humbling 48-20 loss against Notre Dame in which rare offensive mistakes combined with porous defense to put a nationally televised nightmare on display. Utah (5-1, 4-2) came out of its bye week and hammered Cal, setting up another primetime matchup that the Trojans hope to fare much better in as they look to remain perfect in Pac-12 play.

Utah vs. USC odds, props and predictions hinge on whether you think last week’s effort from Southern Cal was an aberration or its true colors that will be further exposed by an opponent that’s had its number of late.

Utah vs. USC odds: Point spread, moneyline, total

Here are the latest college football betting odds for the Utes vs. Trojans:

USC opened as a 5-point home favorite. Books are listing the Trojans at on the moneyline after opening -235. Utah is to pull the upset, up from +190. The total is now as low as after opening at 56.

Utah betting news: New weapon Vaki in line for more work

The Utes have consistently ruined USC seasons over the past decade, winning six of the last 10 meetings, including each of the last three. Kyle Whittingham’s team won the Pac-12 Championship with a 47-24 triumph over the Trojans in Las Vegas last season, six weeks after beating them in a 43-42 thriller around this time last year. Utah has topped the 40-point mark in four of the last six matchups against the Trojans, which includes a 42-26 rout in 2021 that marked its first win in L.A. since 1916.

The engineer of all three of those victories was Southern California native Cameron Rising. Utah’s QB hasn’t played this season after blowing out his knee in January’s Rose Bowl, and may return soon but won't participate this weekend. The Utes have sputtered without him under center, scoring 24 or fewer points in four of its six games and not breaking through for its season-high 34 until defeating Cal last weekend.

Sione Vaki, a sophomore safety and one of Utah’s best athletes, got work at running back and as a wildcat QB, rushing for 158 yards and two TD’s on 15 carries vs. Cal. He won’t catch the Trojans by surprise, but if the Utes block well up front, he’ll be the x-factor in this contest.

Teaming with top back Ja’Quinden Jackson, Vaki gives a run-heavy offense some teeth it’s been lacking without Rising at QB. Bryson Barnes is an inconsistent passer and Brian Johnson is an explosive runner who can’t throw, so the passing game will be lacking without last season’s most dangerous threats, tight ends Dalton Kincaid (NFL) and Brant Kuthie (injured), joining Rising in not reprising their roles this season.

True freshman slot WR Mikey Matthews had his coming out party with seven catches against Cal, and now joins vets DeVaughn Vale and Money Parks to give Utah legitimate playmakers that can win one-on-ones against USC’s vulnerable secondary.

The question now becomes whether Barnes, a former walk-on, can get them the ball consistently. He’s utilized as a game manager who knows the offense and takes what the defense gives him, but has never thrown for more than 175 yards or more than one touchdown in a single game.

Considering Utah is 1-7 under Whittingham against USC when scoring fewer than 30 points, that needs to change if it’s going to run its win streak in this series to four. Getting a big game out of Vaki would help too.

USC betting news: Defense key to solving ATS woes

There’s nothing physically wrong with Caleb Williams, so even though Utah’s defense is stingy and as healthy as it has been this season, expecting the reigning Heisman Trophy winner to bounce back from an awful effort in South Bend is a safe bet.

Williams was intercepted three times, threw for only 199 yards and was sacked four times. He’ll still be the No. 1 pick in next April’s NFL draft, but joining Archie Griffin as a two-time Heisman winner is no longer likely.

Expect a big game from Williams, though, since he was named college football’s best player a year ago despite falling short against Utah twice. In those games, he completed nearly 64 percent of his passes for 744 yards, throwing eight touchdowns and just one pick. However, he was sacked 11 times. Keeping him upright, especially after what happened last week, is essential.

Even though USC has been favored by over 20 points in all its wins, the defense let Arizona State, Colorado and Arizona all hang around. Big plays have been a problem. Red zone defense hasn’t been good.

There’s too much talent on the roster to be surrendering 33 points per game, which has put defensive coordinator Alex Grinch on the hot seat. With games against Washington, Oregon and UCLA still looming in November, the Trojans have to start turning things around immediately.

Utah vs. USC prop picks

• USC RB MarShawn Loyd OVER 60.5 rushing yards (-114)
• USC QB Caleb Williams UNDER 20.5 rushing yards (-114)

Sacks are factored into rushing yardage in college, so Williams’ numbers will be impacted given how the Utes get after quarterbacks. Not exposing their star to contact against another physical defense will be a priority for Lincoln Riley, so look for him to lean on Lloyd to run the football in order to keep Utah from digging in and coming after Williams.

Ride the low side on the reigning Heisman winner’s rushing yardage and the over on Lloyd's, who has topped 60 yards in nine of his last 13 and is likely to get the bulk of USC’s carries.

Utah vs. USC prediction

Williams covets victory over Utah before he leaves college and lit up last year’s group, so expect the offense to bounce back. Without Rising and Kuthie, the Utes lack the balance necessary to keep up, especially on the road.

Utah may break off a big play or two, but I wouldn’t trust Barnes to net a backdoor cover, much less a road upset. Lay the points and shop for the best line.