UTSA-Tennessee prediction, odds, pick, how to watch College Football Week 4 game

Tennessee aims to get back on track after its disappointing loss to Florida when it hosts UTSA in Knoxville. We continue our college football odds series with a UTSA-Tennessee prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.

The Vols trailed 26-7 to the Gators at halftime and couldn't find any momentum in a 29-16 defeat. It was a head-scratching performance for Josh Heupel's team, who also struggled in their Week 2 win against Austin Peay.

Meanwhile, the Roadrunners are off to a slow start at 1-2, but all three games have been decided by eight points or less – a 17-14 loss at Houston, a 20-13 win vs. Texas State, and a 37-29 loss vs. Army.

Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: UTSA-Tennessee Odds

UTSA: +20.5 (-104)

Tennessee: – 20.5 (-118)

Over: 58.5 (-115)

Under: 58.5 (-105)

How to Watch UTSA vs. Tennessee

TV: SEC Network

Stream: ESPN+

Time: 4 ET/PT

*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why UTSA Will Cover The Spread

A good starting point would be quarterback Frank Harris. Of course, the issue is that Harris missed the Army game with a toe injury, and his status is unknown for this matchup. Backup quarterback Eddie Lee Marburger stepped in with a big performance against Army (17 of 25, 329 YDs, 3 TDs), but Harris will be the guy if he's cleared to play. Here's why: He has racked up 9,775 passing yards and 76 touchdowns in five seasons at UTSA, and he's added 1,880 rushing yards and 24 touchdowns to his credit.

Harris is the exact type of playmaker you need to pull off a power conference upset on the road. His dual-threat ability could be significant in this game, especially considering that Tennessee just allowed Florida running back Trevor Etienne to rush for 172 yards and a touchdown. The Vols' defensive line is still one of the strengths of the team, but Harris' ability to make plays with his legs can be a huge asset. He also has a proven, physical wide receiver in Joshua Cephus, who has notched 2,735 yards and 20 touchdowns in his career with the Roadrunners.

The UTSA offense hasn't hit its stride just yet, averaging only 21.0 points per game thus far. However, Tennessee's confidence could be lacking after the blowout loss, and the Roadrunners' up-tempo style could keep the Vols on their heels.

If Harris doesn't play? That makes it a much tougher task for Jeff Traylor's squad.

Why Tennessee Will Cover The Spread

The Vols aren't a bad football team. They just had a bad game at Florida, which isn't exactly a new thing since they haven't won in The Swamp since 2003. Still, how Tennessee responds is everything and an angry team with a chip on its shoulder is not one to be messed with. If this is where things turn around for the Vols, it all starts with the offense.

There's a misconception that Josh Heupel wants his teams to throw the ball 50 times per game. That's not true. It's all about establishing the run, and the Vols have two of the SEC's best running backs in Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small. Wright has 41 carries for 296 yards this season, while Small has 33 carries for 197 yards. Neither has found the end zone yet, but that should change in this game. The Wright-Small combination should be able to crack a UTSA defense that's allowing just 2.9 yards per rush (28th nationally).

Also, if Harris is sidelined, the Tennessee front seven could get to Marburger early and often. The Vols rank 12th nationally with 4.0 sacks per game.

Something else worth noting: Tennessee lost a combined eight games in Heupel's first two seasons. One of them was a bowl loss to Purdue, so we won't count that for this exercise. But here's what the Vols did after each loss: 56-0 win (Tennessee Tech), 62-24 win (Missouri), 52-24 loss (Alabama), 60-14 win (South Alabama), 66-24 win (Missouri), 56-0 win (Vanderbilt). That's a 5-1 record in those six games with a scoring average of 54.0 points.

Final UTSA-Tennessee Prediction & Pick

If Harris plays, UTSA has a chance to make this interesting. But will he be at 100 percent even if he does? That's the question. Once again, Tennessee has fared well after losses under Heupel, and this is the ultimate get-right game before seeking revenge on South Carolina in Week 5. Milton needs to be a bit sharper, and the defense has to play better than it did at Florida if this team is going to be a factor in the SEC moving forward. The Vols should be able to put it all together and earn a much-needed confidence boost in a big win.

Final UTSA-Tennessee Prediction & Pick: Tennessee -20.5 (-118)