Vegas Golden Knights vs. Seattle Kraken Preview and Picks

The bottom half of the Western Conference bracket is set, but plenty can be decided at the top. With two days left in the regular season, both division titles are still up for grabs. Thursday night’s Pacific Division battle between the Seattle Kraken and Vegas Golden Knights will factor in who claims the first seed in the conference. 

Needing just a point to assure themselves of the top spot, the Golden Knights travel to the Emerald City to conclude a home-and-home series with the Kraken on the season’s penultimate day.

Vegas has reserved its best performances for the end of the campaign. The Pacific Division leaders have outplayed their opponents in four straight and six of their past seven, with a cumulative 58.3% expected goals-for rating. That puts them ahead of their season-long rating of 51.1% and fifth in the league over that stretch.

Those efforts have yielded a very pronounced trend, with Vegas going to overtime in four of the seven contests. Although the Knights have played a suffocating brand of defense in their end, they have also played more conservatively on offense. In three of their past five, Vegas has attempted nine or fewer high-danger and 20 or fewer scoring chances. 

With the division on the line, the Golden Knights have been content to play for a point to maintain their lead in the standings.

The Kraken deserve respect for their recent performances. In their second season in the NHL, Seattle has hung with the best teams in the league, staying in contention for the Pacific Division title until the bitter end. A postseason berth is a noteworthy consolation prize, and the Kraken won’t be an easy out in a seven-game series or their regular season home finale.

Since the start of March, Seattle has put together the fourth-best expected goals-for rating. Predictably, that’s positively impacted outcomes, with the Kraken combining for a 13-6-2 recordand a .667 points percentage, tenth-best in the NHL. 

Like the Golden Knights, the Kraken have relied on stout defensive performances to limit their opponents. The NHL’s newest franchise has held its opponents to eight or fewer quality opportunities in 11 of their last 13, for an average of 6.2 per game. 

• 60-minute line – Tie +330
• Reilly Smith Any Time Goal Scorer +280

Both teams have a penchant for a defense-first structure, which will limit the scoring chances and lends itself to a tight-checking game. Moreover, the Golden Knights have been playing for overtime to bolster their position in the standings and continue to fend off the surging Edmonton Oilers.

That method won’t change, with Vegas hoping to secure just a single point in this Pacific Division matchup to clinch the top spot in the conference. 

Look for the usual suspects to continue to buoy the Golden Knights in this one. Reilly Smith ranks third on the team with 25 goals. That’s tied for the second-highest total of his career with the third-best shooting percentage. The former third-round pick is coming off a three-point effort last time out and has 11 shots over his previous five outings. Still, Smith is priced as a +280 longshot in the any-time goal scorer market. 

We’re betting his solid play continues and investing in Smith to find the back of the net.