Veronika Kudermetova vs Anhelina Kalinina Odds & Prediction

An unexpected Italian Open semifinal ensures that either Anhelina Kalinina or Veronika Kudermetova will be a first-time WTA 1000 finalist. The Russian is favored in the Kudermetova vs Kalinina odds and we have the best bet for the match here.

Kudermetova vs Kalinina Odds

At -174 odds, No. 11 seed Kudermetova is a slight favorite in the  Kudermetova vs Kalinina semifinal at the Italian Open Friday. Kalinina is the underdog at +142 odds. Kudermetova vs Kalinina odds as of May 18 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Use this FanDuel promo code to bet on the Italian Open semifinals.

Anonymous Kalinina Has a Week

For Kalinina, at 26 about two months older than Kudermetova but far less accomplished, it has been a week to remember.

She’s a player who seemingly picks up her tennis kits at the local thrift store. She walks through tournament sites anonymously and just goes about her business.

A solid athlete without one particularly big weapon, Kalinina has beaten 2020 Australian Open champion Sofia Kenin, Madison Keys and No. 12 seed Beatriz Haddad Maia this week.

Her late-night win over Haddad Maia, at 3h41, was the longest on the WTA Tour this season. And it was a rare show of emotion from the usually stolid Ukrainian. She was down 0-3 in the third set.

Kalinina is now 4-0 vs the Brazilian, so she had to believe in her chances even when things looked grim.

Kudermetova vs Kalinina Head-to-Head

Kudermetova Takes it Up a Notch

Kudermetova has reached the top 10 in the past. She’s currently at No. 12, would get back to the top 10 if she beats Kalinina and get to a career-best No. 7 if she wins the tournament. And she’s done it mostly by being a solid quarterfinalist.

Only twice in 15 Grand Slam tournament appearances has the Russian gone past the third round. Her best result notably was a quarterfinal at last year’s French Open.

So she’s a player who posts consistent results, who has been waiting for a breakthrough.

In this scrambled Italian Open where five of the top six seeds lost early, Kudermetova might have made that breakthrough.

Even if she had issues with a “seasoned” line umpire in her win over Zheng Qinwen in the quarterfinals.

Statistically, clay is the Russian’s best surface, by far, of all the surfaces. She has a strong first serve, and she’s very quick.

That’s true of Kalinina as well.

Kudermetova vs Kalinina Match History

Kudermetova had just made a run at the WTA tournament in Qatar (beating Krejcikova, Kenin and Coco Gauff) before arriving in Dubai and getting surprised by Kalinina in February.

She won their first meeting indoors on a quick hard court in Linz in 2021.

But both matches went the distance.

Given both are at their best on the clay, and both had a full two days between their quarterfinal and Friday’s semifinal, the length of Kalinina’s quarterfinal match shouldn’t be a huge factor.

The possibility that the winner could win a WTA 1000 title without having to get through Iga Swiatek is an edifying prospect. The world No. 1 retired with a thigh injury in her quarterfinal late Wednesday night against Elena Rybakina.

Kudermetova vs Kalinina Prediction

Their history indicates it’ll be a close matchup. And this time, it’ll be on their mutual best surface.

Kudermetova has a slight edge with the bigger serve. But depending on the weather conditions (rain has been a constant feature this week here in Rome), that edge is blunted somewhat.

The total games prop is one where even the higher end can be a worthwhile risk. And over 24.5 games sits at +126 odds.

Kalinina to win in three sets is an intriguing longthot bet at +370.

Kudermetova vs Kalinina Prediction: Over 2.5 Sets (+116)