Vienna 2023: Andrey Rublev vs Matteo Arnaldi preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Fixture: (3) Andrey Rublev vs Matteo Arnaldi

Date: October 26, 2023

Tournament:Erste Bank Open 2023

Round: Second round (Round of 16)

Venue: Wiener Stadthalle, Vienna, Austria

Surface: Indoor hardcourt

Prize money: €2,409,835

Andrey Rublev vs Matteo Arnaldi preview

Third seed Andrey Rublev will square off against Matteo Arnaldi in the second round of the 2023 Erste Bank Open on Thursday.

Rublev was drawn against Alexei Popyrin in the first round. The Russian led by a break twice, but found himself on the backfoot as his opponent fought back to level the terms.

Popyrin snagged a break in the ninth game to go 5-4 up and even served for the set after that, but Rublev broke back to stop him in his tracks. The set soon went into a tie-break, which went the World No. 5's way.

There were no such momentum swings in the second set. Rublev was in command right from the start and a lone break of serve swayed the tide in his favor as he won the match 7-6 (5), 6-4.

Arnaldi kicked off his challenge in Vienna against veteran Albert Ramos-Vinolas. The Italian youngster led by a break in each set, but surrendered his lead on both occasions. Nevertheless, he bounced back in the two tie-breaks to win the match 7-6 (4), 7-6 (2).

Andrey Rublev vs Matteo Arnaldi head-to-head

This will be the first meeting between them, so the head-to-head stands at 0-0 for now.

Andrey Rublev vs Matteo Arnaldi odds

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

Andrey Rublev vs Matteo Arnaldi prediction

After plenty of back and forth in the first set, Rublev took charge of the reins to oust Popyrin. He's now another step closer to qualifying for the ATP Finals. Arnaldi, meanwhile, continues to shine in his breakthrough season.

The Italian didn't lose the plot after giving up leads in both sets, but showed nerves of steel to get the job done in the tie-breaks. Arnaldi rained down 11 aces and won 70% of his first serve points in a strong display of serving.

Arnaldi's record against top 10 players stands at 1-3. His only win came on clay and hasn't even won a set in his other three defeats, which were on hardcourts. Rublev's coming into this tournament on the heels of a runner-up finish at the Shanghai Masters.

Arnaldi's a rising young talent, but could find it tough to counter the Russian's ferocious shotmaking. Rublev, who's a former champion in Vienna, should be able to withstand the challenge from the Italian to advance further.

Pick: Andrey Rublev to win in straight sets.