Vincenzi’s World Wide Technology Championship betting preview: Paspalum green specialists ready to feast in Mexico
The PGA TOUR heads to Los Cabos, Mexico to play the 2023 World Wide Technology Championship at El Cardonal at Diamante.
Previously named The Mayakoba Golf Classic and the OHL at Mayakoba, the event was held at El Camaleón Golf Club for sixteen years prior to being moved to El Cardonal. El Camaleón is now utilized for the LIV Golf Mayakoba event.
El Cardonal at Diamante is a 7,452-yard, par-72 Tiger Woods design featuring paspalum greens. “Influenced by the old-style courses of Southern California where he grew up playing, Tiger created a course that brings back the need for strategy—providing players with several shot options to navigate during each hole.”
This event features 132 players vying for 500 FedExCup points and will finalize the top 125 for the next season. The fields continue to be relatively weak as we make our way through the end of the fall swing. Some of the notable golfers among the 132 in the field include: Ludvig Aberg, Cameron Young, Lucas Glover, Emiliano Grillo, Beau Hossler and Cameron Champ.
Past Winners at World Wide Technology Championship (at El Camaleón Golf Club)
- 2022: Russell Henley (-23)
- 2021: Viktor Hovland (-23)
- 2020: Viktor Hovland (-20)
- 2019: Brendon Todd (-20)
- 2018: Matt Kuchar (-22)
- 2017: Patton Kizzire (-19)
- 2016: Pat Perez (-21)
- 2015: Kevin Kisner (-18)
- 2014: Charlie Hoffman (-17)
- 2013: Harris English (-21)
Let’s take a look at several metrics for El Cardonal at Diamante to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
When speaking about the course, Tiger Woods said, “Angles of approach are going to be very important and will dictate the type of shots you should consider”. With Tiger Woods’ influence, there’s a good chance that El Cardonal will play as a second shot golf course.
Total Strokes Gained: Approach in past 24 rounds:
- Lucas Glover (+29.5)
- Sam Ryder (+24.9)
- Russell Knox (+22.4)
- Chez Reavie (+18.3)
- Ryan Moore (+17.9)
Driving Distance
El Cardonal features some forgiving fairways and is a relatively long course, so distance should be favored over accuracy this week.
Total Driving Distance in past 24 rounds:
- Cameron Champ (+22.5)
- Peter Kuest (+17.1)
- M.J. Daffue(+16.5)
- Chris Gotterup (+16.0)
- Kyle Westmoreland (+15.1)
Strokes Gained Total: Paspalum
Paspalum greens are a different surface than what most of the TOUR players are used to. They can be bumpy and slow, and certain golfers tend to really thrive on them year in, year out.
Comparable greens can be found at TPC Kuala Lumpur (CIMB Classic), Coco Beach Golf and Country Club (Puerto Rico Open) and Corales Golf Club (Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship).
Total Strokes Gained: Paspalum in past 24 rounds:
- Brandon Wu (+51.3)
- Adam Long (+42.4)
- Nate Lashley (+40.0)
- Akshay Bhatia (+34.0)
- Harry Hall (+26.8)
Opportunities Gained
At a resort course in Mexico, we will likely see some scoreable conditions this week. Therefore, it will be important to target golfers who consistently see birdie opportunities from within 15 feet. Historically, poor putters have done fairly well on paspalum, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a typically strong tee to green player get hot with the flat stick.
Total strokes gained in category in past 24 rounds:
- Russell Knox (+23.8)
- Callum Tarren (+21.3)
- Doug Ghim (+19.0)
- Ludvig Aberg (+18.5)
- Chris Kirk (+18.0)
Strokes Gained: Total in Easy Scoring Conditions
At the end of the day, this is a resort course in Mexico during the swing season. There’s a high likelihood of this event turning into a “birdie-fest”.
Total Strokes Gained: Total in Easy Scoring Conditions:
- Doug Ghim (+39.4)
- Stephan Jaeger (+29.2)
- Tyler Duncan (+24.1)
- Akshay Bhatia (+23.7)
- Ludvig Aberg (+22.3)
Statistical Model
Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.
These rankings are comprised of SG: App (28%) Driving Distance (18%); SG: Paspalum (18%); Opportunities Gained (18%); and, Strokes Gained: Total in Easy Scoring Conditions (15%)
- Callum Tarren (+6500)
- Stephan Jaeger (+2500)
- Doug Ghim (+5500)
- Akshay Bhatia (+4000)
- Lucas Glover (+2500)
- Cameron Champ (+5000)
- Brandon Wu (+8000)
- Kevin Roy (+25000)
- Luke List (+4000)
- Kevin Yu (+11000)
2023 World Wide Technology Championship Picks
Emiliano Grillo +2800 (FanDuel)
Emiliano Grillo has played a lot of his best golf on shorter resort-style courses in this region of the world and/or on Paspalum Greens. He has a second (2015) and third (2020) place finish at the Puerto Rico Open, a sixth at Corales (2021), and three top-10 finishes at El Camaleón (2016, 2017 & 2020). He also came in 5th at last year’s Mexico Open at Vidanta. The Argentinian ranks 7th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Paspalum.
Grillo started slowly this fall, missing his first two cuts, but bounced back nicely with a 10th place finish at the ZOZO Championship in his most recent start. While there was no shot tracker at the event, Grillo gained on the field in what was measured including Driving Distance, Good Drives Gained and Greens in Regulation.
After the top of the board, there is a steep drop-off in terms of talent and win equity and I believe Grillo represents the best option in the next tier of golfers.
Akshay Bhatia +4000 (BetMGM)
Akshay Bhatia has shown early and often throughout his career that he favors coastal Paspalum golf courses. In the field, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Total on Paspalum and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total on easy courses. The resort style setup will be a perfect recipe for the rising star to find success at El Cardonal this week.
Bhatia has already won on the Korn Ferry Tour in the Sandals Emerald Bay, which is a coastal paspalum track that has some similarities to what we’ll see this week in Mexico. In 2021, the 21-year-old had a runner-up finish at the Puerto Rico Open and placed 26th at the Corales Puntacana Championsip. Last year, Bhatia finished 2nd at the Puerto Rico Open and 4th at the Mexico Open at Vidanta.
The smooth-swinging lefty has already broken through for his first PGA Tour victory at the Barracuda Championship, beating out Patrick Rodgers in a playoff. However, that was an alternate event opposite of the Open Championship. Akshay is still motivated with a lot to prove as we head into the 2024 season.
Cameron Champ +6600 (BetRivers)
Cameron Champ has had a strong fall, finishing 9th the Sanderon Farms and 18th at the Shriners in consecutive starts prior to a poor result at the ZOZO Championship in Japan. Despite the setback, the 25-year-old should still be in excellent form as he heads to Mexico this week.
Champ is another player who’s had strong results on Paspalum throughout his career. In the field, he ranks 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on Paspalum and has finished 6th at the Mexico Open in 2022, and 8th in 2023 to go along with a 10th place finish in 2018 at the OHL at Mayakoba. There seems to be a clear theme with Champ bringing his A-game when he plays in Mexico.
El Cardonal appears to be a course that will favor bombers, and Champ is the biggest bomber on Tour, leading the field in Driving Distance over his past 24 rounds.
He’s inconsistent, but Champ has proven that if he gets in the mix, he can win an event.
Joel Dahmen +6500 (FanDuel)
Joel Dahmen had a rough season in 2022-2023 but has shown some recent signs that he’s getting his game back on track during the fall swing. He struggled at the ZOZO Championship, but I’m happy to disregard one start in Japan after showing strong iron play in his previous start. He gained 4.6 on approach at the Shriners to go along with 5.4 strokes off the tee. The 10.2 strokes Dahmen gained from tee to green was his best performance in that category since March of 2020.
Dahmen also has some strong paspalum results. He’s won the Corales Puntacana Championship in 2021, finished 3rd at Mayakoba in 2022 and 6th there in 2019. He’s played really well on easier setups and should thrive this week in what may turn out to be a “birdie fest”.
Brandon Wu +8000 (FanDuel)
Sticking with the Paspalum theme, Brandon Wu is a player who seems to be a completely different player on the surface. He ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Paspalum, and four of his best six finishes on the PGA Tour come on Paspalum, which is incredible considering the lack of events played on it.
In his past 24 rounds, the Stanford product ranks 19th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 8th in Opportunities Gained, which indicated he’s ready to break out if he can get his putter going. Considering he gains 0.6 strokes on the field per event on Paspalum as opposed to losing strokes to the field on every other surface, El Cardonal seems a likely spot for him to figure it out.
Wu has two finishes of 7th or better at both the Puerto Rico Open and the Mexico Open. I believe in the long-term ceiling for Wu, and I think this week may be the most realistic spot for the 26-year-old to get his first PGA TOUR victory.
Adam Long +15000 (FanDuel)
Adam Long is the last player on the card and continues the theme of players who are extremely comfortable on Paspalum greens. Long ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Paspalum and has finishes of 2nd and 3rd in Mexico at the Mayakoba as well as a 5th at the Corales Puntacana Championship.
Long hasn’t been at his best over the last few seasons, but he started his fall swing on a positive note, finishing 35th at both the Sanderson Farms Championship and the Shriners. In both of those starts, he gained strokes on approach and tee to green. Perhaps a return to his favorite surface will spark Long to return to form even further this week in Mexico.
