Virginia Basketball at Florida State Game Preview, Score Prediction

Exactly six weeks after defeating Florida State in Charlottesville, Virginia travels down to Tallahassee on Saturday, looking to complete the two-game season sweep over the Seminoles. The Cavaliers are on a two-game winning streak after defending their home floor with a pair of key victories over Syracuse and North Carolina. FSU is 5-12, but has been playing better basketball over the last few weeks, especially at the Donald L. Tucker Center, where the Seminoles have enjoyed a significant home court advantage for the last several years over the entire ACC, including Virginia. 

Read on for a full preview of Virginia at Florida State, including details on the game, an opponent scouting report, game notes, and a score prediction.

Game Details

Who: Virginia Cavaliers (12-3, 4-2 ACC) at Florida State Seminoles (5-12, 3-3 ACC)

When: Saturday, January 14th at 4pm ET

Where: Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Florida

How to watch: ESPN2

How to listen: SiriusXM 135 or 202, SXM App 965 | Virginia Sports Radio Network -

All-time series: Florida State leads 28-27

Last meeting: Virginia defeated Florida State 62-57 back on December 3rd, 2022 in Charlottesville.

Opponent Scouting Report: Florida State

2022-2023: 5-12, 3-3 ACC
Notable results: Florida 76-67 L, Nebraska 75-58 L, Purdue 79-69 L, at Virginia 62-57 L, Louisville 74-53 W, Notre Dame 73-72 W, at Duke 86-67 L, Georgia Tech 75-64 W, at Wake Forest 90-75 L

Back on December 3rd, Florida State brought a 1-8 overall record into Charlottesville to take on No. 3 and undefeated Virginia for the ACC opener. As expected, the Seminoles played well above their record, giving the Cavaliers everything they could handle and UVA just barely held on for a 62-57 victory behind 18 points from Kihei Clark. 

In the seven games since then, Florida State is 4-3, with the key trend being that the Seminoles have won each of the four games they have played at home and they have lost each of the three games they have played away from the friendly confines of Donald L. Tucker Center. FSU's home court advantage is bordering on legendary and the Cavaliers have succumbed to that trend as much as anyone in the ACC, having won in Tallahassee just twice in their last 15 trips to the Tucker Center. All five of Florida State's wins this season have come at home, including the three ACC victories over Louisville, Notre Dame, and Georgia Tech.

With that said, the Seminoles are still struggling to find their way and bring a 5-12 overall record into this matchup. Injuries have played a significant role in FSU's troubling season, as Brown transfer Jaylan Gainey tore his ACL before the season began, starter Cam'Ron Fletcher suffered a season-ending knee injury in the game at Virginia, and star freshman Baba Miller missed the first 16 games of the season due to an NCAA suspension. 

Matthew Cleveland has led the charge for the Seminoles over the last few weeks, registering six-consecutive double-doubles coming into this matchup. The 6'7" sophomore is FSU's leading scorer and rebounder, averaging 14.7 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. Virginia fans will also remember the ridiculous game-winning three-pointer Cleveland hit at the buzzer the spoil UVA's senior day last season. 

Much of Florida State's improvements have come from the team's development in perimeter shooting. Cleveland is now shooting 43.5% from three and FSU's second-leading scorer, 6'5" guard Darin Green Jr. (14.0 ppg), is shooting 41.5% from three on a high volume of attempts per game. 

6'5" guard Caleb Mills and 6'6" guard Jalen Warley, who entered the starting lineup after Fletcher's injury, run FSU's offense in tandem. Mills averages 13.3 points and 3.5 assists per game, while Warley is averaging 5.6 points and 3.9 assists per game. 

6'10" freshman Cam Corhen has taken over as the starting center, pushing out the 7'4" Naheem McLeod, who plays more situationally off the bench now. The 6'11" freshman Baba Miller made his collegiate debut this week and could give the Seminoles another weapon in the front court, depending on how long it takes for him to get adjusted to the college game. Then there's the 6'7" freshman guard Tom House, who knocked down a pair of three-pointers at Virginia in December, and gives the Seminoles another big guard option off the bench. 

Florida State has found success lately running guard-heavy lineups and the Seminoles aren't giving up a size advantage with those lineups either as all of their guards are at least 6'5" in addition to the 6'7" Matthew Cleveland, who plays both guard and forward. In particular with FSU's improvements from a three-point shooting standpoint, this is a better team than the one Virginia had trouble with six weeks ago. Defeating the Seminoles on their home floor will take a sound performance from the Cavaliers on both ends of the floor. 

Game Notes

• Virginia is 2-2 in true road games this season and 4-2 overall in games played away from Charlottesville
• UVA is tied for 3rd in the ACC standings at 4-2 on the season, while FSU is tied for 8th at 3-3
• Virginia is looking to even the all-time series with Florida State, as FSU currently leads the series 28-27. 
• Florida State holds a 17-8 advantage over Virginia in games played in Tallahassee
• Tony Bennett is 10-11 in his head coaching career against Florida State

Prediction

Given Virginia's poor track record when playing at Florida State, the Seminoles certainly have a fighting chance in this one. UVA is seeking its first win in Tallahassee since 2018 and its fourth win at Florida State this century. Unfortunately for the Cavaliers, the metrics won't take that trend into account when measuring the outcome of this matchup, which is currently a Quad 3 game on UVA's resume as Florida State's NET ranking is 227. Virginia gets very little out of a win over Florida State, even a blowout, but the Hoos desperately need to avoid the disastrous consequences of a loss on Saturday. Still, Virginia is the better team and brings in the momentum of back-to-back wins over North Carolina and Syracuse. That should be enough for UVA to take care of business and get out of Tallahassee with a win. 

Prediction: Virginia 70, Florida State 63