Warren Gatland's best Wales 23 for the World Cup game that will shape everything

Wales Online
 
Warren Gatland's best Wales 23 for the World Cup game that will shape everything

With Wales' World Cup opener against Fiji creeping closer, the one thing we know is that Warren Gatland didn't really show his hand in the warm-ups.

In terms of consistency of selection and partnerships, there wasn't really anything of note. As Wales travel to France on the weekend, we're all still none the wiser as to who will feature against the Fijians in Bordeaux on September 10.

There's the odd clue here and there, but it's a tough ask trying to pin down exactly what Gatland's first matchday 23 of the World Cup will look like.

Starting in the front-row, much will depend on the fitness of Wales' hookers. If Dewi Lake is fit, he'll likely start alongside Gareth Thomas and Tomas Francis given he's one of the co-captains.

The key to taking on the Fijian pack is largely about matching size with size. Despite some solid showings in the scrum against France and England, the set-up of the Fijian scrum could still be targeted.

From a brief glance, Fiji's scrummaging process is slower than Wales or Australia's - with their back-five starting on one knee before the bind. In that sense, there's more that can go wrong in terms of getting a pack of big forwards right ahead of the engagement.

Against England at Twickenham, Fiji appeared to lose a lot of engagements and Wales will feel they can get at them with the right set-up. Nicky Smith might be an option to trouble Fiji's tight-head Luke Tagi, given he'll likely try stay square in order to give loose-head Eroni Mawi the freedom to dominate on his side.

Perhaps more than Thomas, Smith will burrow into a tight-head's sternum a bit more, but Thomas has probably been ahead of him in the pecking order.

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The second-row is a fairly simple choice, it would seem. Will Rowlands' carrying and ballast at tight-head lock makes him a certainty, while Adam Beard's lineout work could be crucial given how important an attacking maul might be against Simon Raiwalui's side.

Back-row is a little trickier to predict. Jac Morgan, as the other co-captain and the form openside, seems nailed on to wear the seven jersey.

Who packs down at six is more of a mystery. Dan Lydiate would provide a defensively sound option and a bit of extra weight towards the back of the scrum, while Christ Tshiunza demonstrated the athletic traits in the warm-up matches that have seen marked out as one for Wales' future.

Tommy Reffell would have been an option were Morgan not seen more as an openside by Gatland, while Aaron Wainwright appears to be in the thinking as a No. 8 - especially given the injury doubts around Taulupe Faletau.

Taine Basham's own position seems a little unsure from a starting point of view, with his efforts in the warm-up matches more in the guise of impact replacement.

As things stand, you'd imagine a back-row of either Lydiate or Tshiunza, Morgan and Wainwright is most likely - unless Gatland opts to throw Faletau in with no minutes under his belt.

In terms of the half-backs, there's an interesting dynamic with Wales' best performance of the warm-ups being built upon Gareth Davies and Sam Costelow starting, with Tomos Williams and Dan Biggar coming off the bench.

That's certainly an option, with Gareth Anscombe also in the mix - albeit without any action in the warm-ups - but while leaning on Cardiff scrum-half Williams as impact off the bench might be an option, would starting Costelow ahead of Biggar be a little bit of a risk first up in a game where Wales are likely to lean on tactical prowess? That's one for Gatland to decide.

Given the magnitude of the game, Gatland might just opt for the half-back pairing of Williams and Biggar.

Johnny Williams did enough to make the squad and, having yet to enjoy a run of games in the Welsh jersey, Gatland may decide to stick with him after his start against South Africa. Alongside him, George North is seemingly assured of his place at 13 as he continues to quietly impress as a Test-level outside centre with his decision-making in defence.

In the back-three, Josh Adams and Louis Rees-Zammit will surely start, although Rio Dyer will push them close, with Liam Williams the likely full-back. Adams' loss of form has been exaggerated in some quarters, with his form for Cardiff reason enough to select him.

Once he breaks out what is his longest barren run in Test rugby, chances are the tries will start to flow again.

In terms of bench options, it again depends on fitness - with Elias another hooker to suffer an injury. Elliot Dee probably offers something different to the other hookers, so he might be the preferred choice anyway.

In terms of the props, whoever isn't selected out of Smith or Thomas likely gets in ahead of Corey Domachowski. On the tight-head, Dillon Lewis tends to offer plenty around the park, but Henry Thomas showed glimpses of his scrummaging power in the warm-ups.

Dafydd Jenkins is the next cab off the ranks in the second-row - although if Tshiunza doesn't start, naming him as a second-row replacement adds versatility - while it's maybe a toss-up as to who offers the most impact as a back-row replacement.

In terms of adding value from the bench, it's maybe between Basham and Reffell. The breakdown work of Reffell could be vital if Wales need to close things out late on.

Whichever of the half-backs discussed above that don't get the nod will have a bench spot, while the outside back cover will likely fall to Nick Tompkins - although Mason Grady does cover wing as well. Given North's presence, that's not exactly vital though.

Clearly, after a warm-up campaign of chopping and changing, there's still plenty up in the air when it comes to Gatland's best team.

Possible Wales matchday 23 to face Fiji

Starting XV: Liam Williams; Louis Rees-Zammit, George North, Johnny Williams, Josh Adams; Dan Biggar, Tomos Williams; Gareth Thomas, Dewi Lake (co-captain), Tomas Francis, Adam Beard, Will Rowlands, Christ Tshiunza, Jac Morgan (co-captain), Aaron Wainwright.

Replacements: Elliot Dee, Nicky Smith, Henry Thomas, Dafydd Jenkins, Tommy Reffell, Gareth Davies, Sam Costelow, Nick Tompkins