Warriors vs. Lakers prop picks February 23: LeBron James should ball out at home

One of the feature matchups of the NBA’s post-all-star return on Thursday pits the Los Angeles Lakers against the Golden State Warriors at Crypto.com Arena.

The pregame narrative: LeBron James exited the NBA All-Star Game for precautionary reasons, but we don’t expect that to keep him from putting up big numbers against the Warriors at home. Also, while Steph Curry has been sidelined due to injury, Jordan Poole is proving he’s willing to shoot and score from all over the place.

Here are our Warriors vs. Lakers prop picks for February 23.

NBA odds as of 1:25 p.m. on 02/22/2023.

Warriors vs. Lakers prop picks

Best Bet: LeBron over 41.5 points/rebounds/assists (-110)

A minor injury scare in Sunday’s All-Star Game won’t spook us from backing LeBron, especially when the man himself already said he’ll be “fine.”

With that in mind, this is a very reasonable line to back the NBA’s all-time leading scorer at. LeBron is averaging 30.0 points, 8.4 rebounds and 7.0 assists this season (45.4 PRA), and he’s gone over 41.5 PRA in 11 of his past 15 games, as well as 30 of 45 games on the year.

In other words, an average night from LeBron is usually enough to cash a PRA prop at this number. So why is it so low?

Our best guess is the risk of any lingering effects from his hand injury. But given how much LeBron downplayed it after the fact, and given that he’s had half a week to rest/recover, we don’t believe it’ll be enough of a hindrance to matter.

Key stat: The Warriors are a team LeBron is accustomed to tormenting, and he’s gone over this PRA line in all four matchups against them since the start of last season.

Quick picks

Pool over 25.5 points (-118): Generally speaking, tailing Poole in the absence of Curry has been a profitable move. In matchups against the Lakers, Poole becomes an even more enticing play.

The backup point guard scored 29 points two weeks ago against the Lakers, who allow the second-most points to opposing PGs. Also, in 20 games without Curry this year, Poole is averaging 27.6 points and has cleared this line 13 times.

Curry was back on the court for some non-contact work on Tuesday. Bet on Poole in his starter’s role before time runs out.

Poole over 3.5 threes (+108): We’re sticking with Poole in search of a plus-money play, as his 3-point shooting volume has soared when Curry isn’t on the floor.

• Without Curry (20 games): 3.3 threes per game on 10.1 attempts
• With Curry (38 games): 2.4 threes per game on 6.9 attempts

From an efficiency standpoint, Poole is certainly not a Splash Brother. But it appears he’s trying to fill that void, no matter how many beyond-the-arc attempts it takes.

L.A.’s outside defence is suspect, which is why teams attempt an NBA-high 38.4 threes per game against the purple and gold. Expect Poole to give himself enough chances to clear this prop on Thursday.