Warriors vs. Suns prediction, odds, line: 2021 Christmas Day NBA picks, best bets from model on 46-23 roll

Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns are playing on Christmas Day 2021. The teams have met twice this season, with the home team winning each time. Caesars Sportsbook lists Phoenix as a six-point favorite in its latest Warriors vs. Suns odds. SportsLine's model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,00 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons.

Phoenix Suns host Golden State Warriors on Christmas Day. The Warriors are a 7-6-1 ATS favorite on the road this season. Phoenix are 9-8 AET as a home favorite this year.

Golden State Warriors are 7-6-1 ATS on the road this season. Phoenix are 9-8 ATCG as a home favorite this year.

Phoenix is 4-0 against the spread in its last four games. The Suns allow the fourth-fewest points in the NBA (104) and score the third-most (111.8). The Warriors will be missing Wiggins (18.7 points) and Poole (17.9). Devin Booker (23.3 points per game) is a matchup problem for Golden State.

Golden State is 10-1 against the spread in its last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. The Warriors have won no matter who else is on the floor thanks to Curry. Gary Payton II and Juan Toscano-Anderson scored 36 points against Phoenix on Dec. 3. Otto Porter Jr. and Tosca- Anderson scored 22 points in Thursday's win.

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the point total and says one side of the spread is hitting nearly 70 percent of time. SportsLine is only offering its model's Suns vs. Warriors pick at Sportsline.