Warriors vs Trail Blazers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Covers

17 December 2023

Warriors vs Trail Blazers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Deandre Ayton has had a season to forget so far in Portland, but the Trail Blazers big man typicall does well when he faces the Golden State Warriors. This Sunday night should be no exception.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Both the Golden State Warriors and Portland Trail Blazers will come into this one on the second night of a back-to-back, but there’s a stark contrast between these two sides when it comes to how they’ll be feeling.

The Warriors are less than 24 hours removed from a feel-good win over the Nets which saw them snap a three-game slide, while the Trail Blazers have now lost six straight after another poor defensive showing against Dallas. Portland is a home underdog in the NBA odds.

Let's get right into it with our in-depth preview and free NBA picks for Warriors vs. Trail Blazers on Sunday, December 17.

Warriors vs Trail Blazers odds

Warriors vs Trail Blazers predictions

These two teams are strikingly similar when it comes to how they like to play basketball. Neither team has an incredible presence down low, with the Warriors lacking size and the Trail Blazers getting little from offseason acquisition Deandre Ayton. These teams have opted to shoot most of their shots from downtown and from the mid-range, and both have been burned on the defensive side of the ball at the rim.

The one feather in Portland’s cap this season has been its 3-point defense. They rank second in the league with just 33.2% shooting allowed from deep according to Cleaning the Glass, and against a team that’s been one of the most trigger-happy from long-range in the league, that could certainly come in handy. Things have steadied for the Trail Blazers in recent games, too, allowing just 33.2% shooting from beyond the arc to rank just outside the Top 5 and match their performance for the entire season.

One thing I’m also looking at here, pertaining to the 3-ball, is that the Trail Blazers have shot just 31.5% from deep at home this season compared to 36.3% on the road. The sample is significant enough to pay attention to, especially considering the Warriors have the sixth-best 3-point defense in the league.

I’m very sour on the Warriors offense without Draymond Green. We saw them struggle on that end the last time he missed time due to a suspension, and given the poor matchup here, I think both defenses should shine in this game. With that, and some fatigue surely building within both teams given the nature of their recent games and the fact that they’re on the second night of a back-to-back, I think the Under is the best play in this one.

My best bet: Under 232.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

Warriors vs Trail Blazers same-game parlay

Under 232

Trail Blazers +5.5

Deandre Ayton Over 11.5 points

It’s never fun to try and build a same-game parlay around a game you expect to be low-scoring affair. I do think, with the nature of the game, the points are certainly worth taking with the underdog Blazers to combine with the Under. We can expand on the Trail Blazers’ prospects of actually winning this game below, but I do think they’re being undervalued by the market here.

The Trail Blazers’ defense may be hurting at the moment, but Golden State’s has slipped significantly in the last five games with just 117.2 points being scored per 100 possessions. On top of that, with Portland not really made to worry about Ayton’s questionable interior defense they should stick in this game for the duration.

Speaking of the Trail Blazers’ big man, the Warriors have always represented a great matchup for him with their historic lack of size. He’s averaged 18.3 points per game in this matchup throughout his career, which makes the Warriors his seventh-best matchup of any he’s had in his career, and while he did miss their previous meeting this season, he’s gone for Over 11.5 points in his last seven games versus Golden State.

Best NBA bonuses

No-sweat 3+ leg SGP every day
Bonus bets back if your wager doesn’t win! Claim Now

Get up to $1,500 bonus bets back
If your first bet doesn’t win! Claim Now

Warriors vs Trail Blazers spread and Over/Under analysis

The Under is a perfect 4-0 with the Trail Blazers on the second night of a back-to-back, and is 5-4 when Portland has been an underdog at home. Considering this team has been an Over-cashing machine of late, those are relatively promising marks.

Portland’s offense just has to be firing on all cylinders from deep in these games to make up for the lack of defense, but with a good matchup here versus a team that loves to shoot the 3-ball, we should really see a marked improvement on that end. We also don’t have to worry about Green running the break for the Warriors, and as noted above they really have missed his playmaking ability more than anything when he’s been out.

I think there’s a lot of value in taking the Trail Blazers to win this game along with the Under, considering they’re 3-1 straight up on the second night of a back-to-back this season despite winning just six games in total.

Over at DraftKings, just 30% of the tickets and 32% of the cash are on the Under with just 26% of the bets on the Trail Blazers and 28% of the money. These are contrarian spots, but the matchup really does call for the home underdogs here.

Warriors vs Trail Blazers betting trend to know

The Portland Trail Blazers have hit the 2Q moneyline in seven of their last 11 games (+7.70 Units / 67% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Trail Blazers.

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.