Washington Wizards vs. San Antonio Spurs Prediction, Preview, and Odds

The Washington Wizards (23-26) continue their road trip against the San Antonio Spurs (14-36) on Monday. It will be the first of two regular-season matchups between these two teams. The spread is set at Washington -5 while the total is 235. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:00 pm ET at the AT&T Center.

Wizards Continue to Stay Frisky in Tight Playoff Race

Washington has gone 6-2 in their last eight games, propelling them to the ninth seed in the Eastern Conference. Their most recent and most impressive win of the stretch was a 113-103 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans. The Wizards won the rebounding battle 53 to 42 with 13 offensive boards. They also got to the free throw line more often, going 22-29 (75.9%) from the free throw line compared to 17-19 (89.5%) for the Pelicans. They did have 16 turnovers while only forcing 10, but they drew 26 personal fouls from New Orleans (including 5 on Jose Alvarado, putting him in foul trouble) while only committing 17. Washington had more than enough to cover the +5.5 spread while the total went under 231.

The Wizards' defense has been sneakily good this season, ranking in the top five for opponents' effective field goal percentage (52.7%), opponent shooting percentage (46.3%), and opponent shooting efficiency (1.122). On a related note, their block rate of 6.0% is ranked seventh in the league. Their offensive rebound rate of 22.5% isn't great—ranked 22nd—but their defensive rate of 76.7% is ranked 10th and helps make up for it. They also force the second lowest turnover rate out of opponents of any team (10.9%). A big boon is their ability to avoid fouling, ranked seventh in personal foul rate with 17.2%.

Washington is 23-23-3 ATS on the season.

The Spurs Are Winning the Tank for Wemby

San Antonio has gone an impeccable 1-10 in their last 11 games, putting them in a great position to score the first overall pick and draft the sensational Victor Wembanyama. Their last loss came at the hands of the Phoenix Suns, 128-118. The Spurs turned the ball over more (13 vs 9) and got to the charity stripe less frequently (17 attempts vs 26 attempts). The Suns made eight more free throws which accounts for the majority of the score margin in the game. A silver lining is that San Antonio pulled down 17 offensive rebounds (though they gave up just as many). They didn't manage to cover the +5.5 spread while the total went over 231.5.

While the Wizards' defense has been surprisingly good, the Spurs easily have the worst defense in the NBA. They're ranked last in opponents' eFG% (58.0%), three-point percentage (40.0%), shooting percentage (50.9%), shooting efficiency (1.207), and field goals made per game (45.9), and points per game (122.2). Yikes. Their offense is marginally better, ranked 24th in eFG% (52.9%) and 27th in shooting efficiency (1.111). They're actually really good at crashing the glass, averaging an offensive rebound rate of 26.8% (ranked 5th). Their defensive rebounding rate of 74.4% ranks 25th, however.

San Antonio is 23-27 ATS so far this season.

Best Bets

Full-Game Side Bet

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To be completely frank, I don't think the Spurs are actually trying to win basketball games this season. Don't get me wrong, the players are doing their best, but the organization as a whole has not set them up for success. They want a high draft pick. That's a large reason as to why they're 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. Additionally, the Wizards are a blazing 5-0 ATS in their last five. The Wizards are better at just about everything except offensive rebounding, which is why their average score margin of -0.5 (ranked 22nd) is so much better than the Spurs' -9.5 (ranked 30th).

Something like a 9-point Washington win sounds like a pretty reasonable outcome to me.

Prediction: Washington Wizards -5

Full-Game Total Pick

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With San Antonio having the absolute worst defense in the league, it's not surprising that the over is 31-18-1 in their games this season. That's compounded by the speed at which they play the game, ranking eighth in pace according to NBA Advanced Stats. The total has also gone over in seven of the last nine games between the Wizards and Spurs, with the most recent game having a total of 310 points scored.

The over has hit in an astounding 16 of San Antonio's last 20 games, and I see it happening against with a Washington team desperate to stay in the playoff hunt.

Prediction: Over 235

Logan spent his time in college earning his degree in political science while also broadcasting and writing about sports as his side job. He now applies those same research methods and analytical models he learned to sports betting to find the edge necessary to help you beat the house. Logan has become an important part of our team.