Weekend Betting Guide: Red River Rivalry, Cowboys-49ers And A Ridiculously Timed Birthday
Videos by OutKick
My mother flew into town this week for my brother’s girlfriend’s 30th birthday party Saturday. I’m livid I have to go to this. I’m mad at my mother, my brother and his girlfriend. The nerve of this lady to have a birthday party on a weekend during football season. She knows I spend my weekends betting sports. I take this personally.
Anyways, since I started doing these Weekend Betting Guides in NFL Week 1, my record is 15-6-1 and my bankroll is +11.51 units (u). I got my weekend going early with a spread and moneyline bet on the Chicago Bears over the Washington Commanders on Thursday Night Football.
Conference play in college football is in full swing and the NFL is being its usual awesome self. On this spectacular sports slate, I’m gonna need to find a TV in my brother’s girlfriend’s place to keep up with my …
I have to see Oklahoma play a real team before I’m willing to believe the Sooners can hang with Texas. This is their first game vs. a ranked team all year. Whereas the Longhorns upset Alabama 34-24 in Tuscaloosa last month.
Texas beat the brakes off a banged-up Oklahoma 49-0 last season. Sooners QB Dillon Gabriel missed that game so I’m tossing out that result. But, Texas -5.5 is a big number for a rivalry game between undefeated teams.
Sure, the backdoor cover is wide open for OU, however so is the frontdoor for UT. In the first two Red River Shootouts after the Longhorns hired head coach Steve Sarkisian in 2021, these teams combined for 98 and 103 points.
With that in mind, give me the more balanced Texas offense. The Longhorns rank 26th in yards per rush (5.0). While the Sooners rank 75th in yards per rush (4.0) and 101st in line yards per snap.
Texas is 7th nationally in defensive rushing efficiency and 13th in defensive line yards per snap. UT ranks 6th in defensive 3rd-down conversion rate and 1st in red zone conversion rate.
At the end of the day, I have more faith in Texas’s offense to put up points in what will most likely be a shootout Saturday.
First of all, you have to consider fading a ranked team on the road as a short favorite in a conference game. One of the squarest bets in college football is betting the favorite here.
This line has gone from Alabama -4 on the opener down to pick ’em. Sportsbooks are BEGGING for Crimson Tide money. These odds are sketchy. Especially considering ‘Bama is 4-1 straight up since Texas A&M hired coach Jimbo Fisher in 2018.
However, the Crimson Tide are just 2-3 vs. the spread in those games. The Aggies have covered back-to-back meetings with Alabama and won outright 41-38 in 2021. Plus, Fisher has the team to beat his former boss, Nick Saban.
The Aggies have a huge edge in the trenches. Alabama’s offensive line allows QB Jalen Milroe to get sacked 15.6% of the time, which ranks 131st out of 133 FBS programs. Texas A&M has the highest defensive sack rate in the country.
Milroe isn’t your standard dropback passer and Nick Saban tries to hide him by running the ball. Alabama has the 2nd-lowest pass rate in the SEC.
Miami Hurricanes QB Tyler Van Dyke shredded the Aggies, completing 21-of-30 passes for 374 yards with 5 TDs and 0 INT. But, Van Dyke is a better pocket passer than Milroe and A&M held the ‘Canes to just 77 rushing yards as a team.
That’s a problem vs. a Texas A&M defense that leads the conference in rushing efficiency. There will be a lot of 3rd-and-long situations for Alabama, allowing the Aggies’ pass rushers to pin their ears back and get to Milroe.
What’s not to like about the London games? Football with eggs and bacon sounds like a wonderful morning. And this is a pretty awesome game showcasing two divisional favorites and playoff teams from last season.
The Jaguars beat the Atlanta Falcons 23-7 in London last week, a game I cashed on. Thank you very much. The Bills are on a warpath right now and made a statement in Week 4 by crushing the Miami Dolphins 48-20.
Buffalo is a tour de force on both sides of the ball right now. Jacksonville’s offense is bad on the 3rd down and in the red zone. While the Bills are great at getting opponents off the field and keeping them out of the end zone.
I think Buffalo makes another statement this week. The Bills don’t have a weakness on their roster and the Jaguars have taken a step back from last year’s team.
Technically, this is my “best bet in NFL Sunday”. My “best bet for NFL Week 5” is actually the Bears +6 in Washington, which already cashed Thursday. I already laid out my case for why betting the Rams Sunday is the move.
My California Love handicap in a nutshell includes LA having the better coach-QB combo with Sean McVay and Matt Stafford, Philadelphia’s defense regressing year over year, and the possible return of Rams WR Cooper Kupp.
I don’t see how the 49ers could only be laying -3.5 here. Since 2022, San Francisco has won 12 of 13 home games by nearly two TDs per game! This includes a 19-12 win vs. Dallas in the NFC divisional round in last year’s playoffs.
Furthermore, the Niners are better at every position except maybe quarterback. I say “maybe” because by season’s end 49ers QB Brock Purdy will be better than Cowboys QB Dak Prescott.
Frankly, Purdy already is better than Dak and has better odds to win the 2023 NFL MVP. He played one of the best games ever for a QB in Week 4 vs. the Cardinals. Last year’s Mr. Irrelevant completed 20-of-21 throws for 283 yards with 1 TD and a 97.2 QBR.
You may want to give 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan credit for Purdy’s success. But, San Francisco’s coaching edge just strengthens my point that the Niners are the right side for Sunday Night Football.
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
