What are the Cardinals' chances of getting 2024's No. 1 draft pick? (They're not zero)

CINCINNATI — Snagging wins in four of the first five games on this challenging trip against three playoff contenders helped assure the Cardinals that they will avoid a record their organization has not had since a year so famous for the Cubs it’s practically their PIN code.

The Cardinals, now 63-79 after beating the Reds 4-3 on Saturday night, have 20 games remaining and are guaranteed not to have 100 losses — a mark they most recently reached in 1908, the last time the Cubs won the World Series before breaking their long drought in 2016.

They still can lose enough to do something a Cardinals team never has done.

They can “win” the first draft pick.

Major League Baseball’s adoption of a draft lottery this past year gives eligible teams that do not reach the playoffs each an assigned chance at the No. 1 pick. The Cardinals currently have the fifth-worst record in the majors. If they finish in that spot, they’ll secure at worst their highest draft pick yet in the 2000s. They’ll have a chance at drafting in the top six for the first time since selecting J.D. Drew in 1998.

The Cardinals are one of two teams that never have had the first or second pick in the draft. The Boston Red Sox, also currently out of the playoffs, are the other club to never pick first or second since the draft began in 1965.

A draft lottery was a key element of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement that ended last year’s 99-day lockout.

For 2024, as it was this summer, the first six picks in the draft are decided by lottery. The ball draw for draft position is held in December for next July’s draft.

The teams with the three worst records all have the same probability of getting the first pick, at 16.9%. The chances are the same for those three teams to avoid a lead-shoe race to the bottom. The probability of winning the draw drops from there to 13.2% for the fourth-worst record and 10% for the team with the fifth-worst record, 7.5% for sixth, 5.5% for seventh, 3.9% for eighth, and down to 0.5% or less for the few teams just outside of the postseason.

With 20 games remaining y, the Cardinals find themselves as low as they're likely to go in the standings — their chances of the first pick are as high as they’re going to be.

They began play Saturday night 12 wins behind moving into the worst three records, and both Kansas City and Oakland already have more than 97 losses to hold down the bottom two spots. The Cardinals were seven losses behind the White Sox for the fourth-worst record. The Cardinals were closest to Washington, jockeying for that fifth- or sixth-worst start, but the Nationals are not eligible for the draft lottery. So it would have to be another team such as the Tigers, Mets, Angels, or Pirates to slip past the Cardinals for better odds.

If the Cardinals finish with the fifth-worst record, they’ll have the 10% chance at claiming the first pick and, if they don’t, a 10.3% chance at the other pick they’ve never had as an organization, selection No. 2.

With a fifth-worst finish, the lowest pick they can end up with is 11th.

Higher picks come with higher bonus values that can also help a team by increasing the money they have to spend on all of their draft choices.

The Cardinals haven’t drafted higher than No. 13 at any point in the 2000s. The highest pick the Cardinals have had in the eight drafts captained by assistant general manager Randy Flores was 18th, in 2022.

The Cardinals drafted Drew fifth overall in 1998, and all of their most recent picks in the top six came in the 1990s. In 1996, the Cardinals drafted Braden Looper with their highest pick ever — No. 3 — and in 1991 they drafted Dmitri Young with the fourth pick.

The Cardinals and Reds are two of the eight teams to never pick first — or “one-one” in the industry — in 59 years of the amateur draft. The Reds have drafted at No. 2 three times. They had consecutive No. 2 picks in 2016 and 2017 and drafted two current members of their team: power starter Hunter Greene and outfielder Nick Senzel, who scored their first run Saturday night at Great American Ball Park.

As for the Cardinals and their record: Four times they have lost 100 or more games. But 90 losses aren’t all that common, either. Only three times in the past century have the Cardinals lost 90 or more games. Their winning percentage puts them on pace for 91 losses, their most since 1990 and only their fourth 90-loss season since Babe Ruth’s debut.

But it comes with a chance, however slim, to turn it all into the first overall pick.

Bader’s detour 

A strange thing happened for former Cardinals center fielder Harrison Bader on his way to free agency this winter. His hometown New York Yankees, 13 months after acquiring via trade from the Cardinals, floated him onto waivers, making him available to any team while he played for their team.

The Reds put in a claim, and Bader went from pinstripes to limbo to his third team in the 14 months before finally having a choice on where he’ll play next.

“A lot of players get traded, they get plunged into different clubhouses, and at the time you don’t know necessarily what to cling on to,” Bader said Saturday in the Reds’ clubhouse. “It’s hard to reinvent yourself overnight when you get traded to another team, so what you have to go off of is what gives you confidence every day, what allows you to go out there and play your brand of baseball — which is why the team wanted you.”

Bader vaulted from the last-place Yankees to a team that was within a game or two of a playoff berth. He’s played center field and batted leadoff for the Reds and their matchup-driven approach to lineups. In the Reds’ home clubhouse, he got the locker once used by Scott Rolen.

At 29, the Gold Glove-winner will reach free agency and shop for his first multi-year contract just a few years after being unable to reach an agreement on an extension with the Cardinals.

“I want to play for a team that has a chance to win,” Bader said. “That’s all I’ve really known is being on teams that are really good and in contention. When I think of all the noise and everything that has happened in the last week or so, what really silences it is just go out there, let the game start, and know winning and playing baseball is the universal language.”

Bader was one for three Saturday, with an RBI.

Cincy’s COVID outbreak, etc.

Cincinnati placed two more players on the COVID-19 injury list as they deal with the virus snaking through their clubhouse. Outfielder Stuart Fairchild and pitcher Alex Young went on the list on Saturday, becoming the fifth and sixth players this month placed on the injury list created especially for players who tested positive for the virus or have symptoms. Others on that list include pitchers Greene, Fernando Cruz, Ben Lively, and Brandon Williamson.

• The Cardinals' Tommy Edman started at this third different position in three days: Thursday was center field, Friday at shortstop, and on Saturday he manned second base. He was three for four in the game.

• The Cardinals will maintain their rotation, as scheduled, and confirmed Adam Wainwright will start Tuesday in Baltimore against the Orioles. That also pits Drew Rom, the lefty acquired from the Orioles at the trade deadline, against his former organization in the series finale Wednesday.