What we learned: Analyzing wins by Forte, Angel of Empire
One of the two Derby points races Saturday provided drama, and the other resulted in a clear margin win. Despite the presence of Forte, the close finish ended up happening at Gulfstream Park in the Florida Derby (G1), and the visually pleasing win belonged to Angel of Empire in the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park.
Here are short recaps and post analysis.
Florida Derby
When horses draw a wide post in a two-turn dirt route at Gulfstream, it offers plenty of peril because of the possibility of running wide on the first turn. Just look at Dorth Vader and her run in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2).
In the case of Forte in the Florida Derby (G1), he drew Post 11. Forte did not have the proper speed to clear the field. Instead, jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. negated the effects of the wide post slightly by dropping back and accepting a position near the rear in exchange for less ground loss.
Meanwhile, Mage broke slowly again and ended up traveling right behind Forte in the opening quarter as Fort Bragg led uncontested on the front end.
On the far-turn approach, Forte began passing horses without tipping wide yet. In contrast, Mage made a sweeping move on the outside to get into position next to the leaders, and then Forte went even wider to follow him.
Mage took control of the lead from Cyclone Mischief in mid-stretch. Forte came after him and caught Mage before the wire to win by one length.
Forte completed the nine furlongs in 1:48.51, which resulted in a 98 Beyer Speed Figure, according to Daily Racing Form, and 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which match his last race.
From a visual standpoint, it did not seem that Forte matched his Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) effort, mostly because of the wide post and ground loss on the far turn affecting his stretch run. Would the trouble not result in a slower performance? Perhaps Mage and Cyclone Mischief took the next step forward though with their second- and third-place finishes.
Also, the fast pace set by Fort Bragg possibly made it easier to hit a good final time. Fort Bragg opened the race with fractions of 23.57 seconds, 46.71 and 1:10.63.
Although the outcome did not seem certain, Forte kept his winning streak alive and now heads into the Kentucky Derby as the probable favorite unless one of the horses in the next round of preps blows away the field.
Arkansas Derby
At Oaklawn, Angel of Empire won the Arkansas Derby (G1) by a clear margin to set up himself as one of major contenders for the Kentucky Derby. He did not receive any significant help from the moderate pace scenario either.
On paper, Harlocap and Two Eagles River were the two main candidates to set the pace, and Two Eagles River took the initiative to take the lead as Harlocap under Ricardo Santana Jr. opted to tuck in behind the pacesetter.
Meanwhile, the betting favorite Rocket Can ended up in an outside stalking position behind the leaders in fifth after the first quarter, and Angel of Empire traveled in an open area a few lengths behind the first group.
Two Eagles River set fractions of 23.27 seconds, 47.26 and 1:12.24 for the nine-furlong race. TimeformUS did not mark those fractions in any color.
On the far turn approach, Rocket Can tried to move forward. But Rocket Can already seemed in deep waters when Angel of Empire rallied on his outside and passed him. Joining the leaders on the turn afterward, Angel of Empire wasted no time in securing the lead from Two Eagles River by the top of the stretch, and then he started to open up.
At this point, Angel of Empire had the race wrapped up and he ended up winning by 4 1/4 lengths. The race for second was exciting though. About five horses battled for the runner-up spot, and eventually the long shot King Russell earned the placing with his outside rally. Reincarnate held third.
Angel of Empire completed the nine furlongs in 1:49.68, which earned him a 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The Beyer Speed Figure had not yet been posted.
Given Rocket Can’s non-threatening fourth-place finish, it does throw into question the quality of horses Forte beat in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and Florida Derby (G1). Did Forte beat a weak bunch over there?
Angel of Empire will head to Churchill Downs as an interesting contender with a consistent record. But it does not feel like a good sign to see all those horses behind him finishing as one big cluster, as if they were racing on turf.
Nevertheless, Angel of Empire beat them without any pace help. He gets credit for overcoming a moderate pace and opening up in the stretch run.
