What’s really behind Astros GM’s perplexing comments
Where: Cincinnati, OH Paycor Stadium
TV/Radio: KHOU-TV, KILT-Radio
Betting Lines: Bengals -6.5 (-110), O/U 47 (-110) *As of this writing
The Bengals enter this matchup on a four-game win streak after losing their October 1 game 27-3 to the Titans. They're now 5-3 overall. The Texans enter the game alternating wins and losses over their last five for a 3-2 record, 4-4 overall. Both teams are seemingly hitting their stride after a bit of a rough start. The Bengals went from potential Super Bowl contenders to a team looking very much like a shell of its former self at the beginning of this season. The Texans were an afterthought who showed promise, now they're being looked at as a surprise playoff contender by some. Both teams have very young head coach/quarterback combos. Zac Taylor and Joe Burrow are 40 and 26, respectively. DeMeco Ryans and C.J. Stroud are 39 and 22, respectively. The NFL's youth movement will be on full display.
When the Bengals have the ball: For a team that doesn't average 300 yards of total offense a game, the Bengals are still favored by almost a full touchdown and extra point. While their defense has been the calling card, especially in their current win streak, this offense is still capable of putting up ridiculous numbers. Wide receiver Tee Higgins (hamstring) has been ruled out for this game. Ja'Marr Chase (back) is expected to be a game time decision, but did suit up for practice on today (Friday). Taylor when asked of Chase's status for the Texans game: “We'll see.” That sounds a lot like somebody asking to borrow money from you when you know they can't pay you back. With the Texans being without Jimmie Ward and Steven Nelson listed as questionable, that might be a wash to see no Higgins and possibly a hobbled Chase. Henry To'oTo'o will be out as well. Look for the Texans to put pressure on Burrow and force the issue, considering the Bengals' offensive line hasn't been very good since he's gotten there. Their run game is almost non-existent for the same reason. 76 yards a game on the ground isn't going to scare anyone.
When the Texans have the ball: The Bengals' defense has been shouldering the burden lately. In their current win streak, they have given up 20 or more once. It was exactly 20 to the lowly Cardinals in a 34-20 win to start their streak. They've been held under 20 once. They beat Seattle 17-13 in the second game of this streak. The Texans have been thought to be in uphill battles against the Saints and Buccaneers recently. Both are very talented defenses. Both lost to the Texans. Stroud is putting up numbers unheard of for a rookie quarterback in this league. One interception in eight games with 14 touchdown passes is impressive. Even more impressive is he's doing this behind an injury-riddled offensive line and doesn't have an alpha-male lead dog WR1. DE Sam Hubbard being out for the Bengals will help Stroud and the pass game. So will having veteran WR Robert Woods back in the fold. Missing Dameon Pierce, Nico Collins, Andrew Beck, and kicker Ka'imi Fairbairn will definitely make things more difficult. Could THIS be the week in which the run game gets going? The Bengals give up 130 yards a game on the ground. The run game would help offset missing pieces in the pass game and help control the clock to give your ailing defense time to recover.
Outcome: No Fairbairn (most of the game) and no Pierce was no problem last week. This week, adding others to that list will make it more of an uphill battle. Whatever the passing yards total is for this game, bet the over. Neither team can run the ball effectively, but the Texans have a better run defense. Part of that comes from help in the secondary. Whoever establishes their run game, will have the leg up. I trust Joe Mixon behind their offensive line more than Devin Singletary behind the Texans' line. Last week, I predicted a closing seconds win. While it didn't go exactly as I thought, a win is a win. This week, I see a similar outcome, but not in their favor. Bengals 23, Texans 21 as Evan McPherson kicks a game winner with a few seconds left on the clock.
