When could Max Verstappen clinch the Formula One title? We did the math

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Welcome back to Prime Tire, where we’re also wondering how to drive on streets again after months in the European countryside.

Formula One is back under the lights next weekend for the Singapore Grand Prix. After a historic weekend in Italy, we’ve been chewing on what’s left for Max Verstappen and Red Bull to achieve this year. I’m Patrick, and Madeline Coleman will be along shortly. Let’s drive in.

When will Max Verstappen clinch the title?

Now that the Red Bull driver has broken the sport’s consecutive wins record, that’s the only truly outstanding question about Verstappen’s 2023 season. (Funny, it seems like just yesterday we were wondering if Sergio Pérez would challenge his teammate for the title.) (It wasn’t yesterday.) (It was late April.)

So, when can Verstappen claim his third world championship? Let’s do some math.

The most points anyone can get from here on out are 232 (that’s 26 points for winning a GP and getting fastest lap, plus eight points for each of the three remaining sprint races). Given Verstappen’s points haul, only Lewis Hamilton, Fernando Alonso, and Sergio Perez still have a mathematical shot.

• Verstappen: 364
• Pérez: 219
• Alonso: 170
• Hamilton: 164

To figure out how soon Verstappen could lock up the championship, let’s assume he keeps winning (with the extra point for fastest lap), and Pérez (the only realistic challenger, and “realistic” is, uh, generous) finishes outside the points.

After Japan, Verstappen would have 416 points to Perez’s 219. That’s a 197-point gap — more than the 180 points Perez could get by running the table for the rest of the season. Game over.

However, Pérez is unlikely to score zero points in the next two races. It’s more likely that Verstappen keeps winning, but Pérez keeps taking second. So, let’s think that through. If Pérez finishes second in Singapore and Japan and Verstappen wins both, the gap between them would be 161 points, with a remaining Verstappenimum of 180. That’s an awfully narrow margin of error.

Let’s keep going. Let’s say Verstappen wins the Qatar GP and its sprint race, and Pérez finishes second in both:

• Verstappen: 450
• Pérez: 280
• Gap: 170
• Points remaining: 146

And that’s the ballgame. If Verstappen wins in Singapore, Japan, and Qatar — even if Pérez’s right behind him every step — he takes the championship.

Unless, of course, he doesn’t win the championship this year! I suppose it’s also possible the sun could explode at any given moment. Everything is possible until it isn’t. (The sun thing is always possible.) Patrick’s note: It’s an enormous nuclear fusion fireball. I’m not ruling anything out! Wear sunscreen.

What else is left to play for?

Here are (at least) three things we’ll keep an eye on even as Verstappen wraps up the title race.

A non-Red Bull win. This is the Holy Grail right now. The golden goose. The needle in the haystack. No F1 team has ever won every grand prix in a season. McLaren won 15 out of 16 in 1988. During Lewis Hamilton’s stretch of dominance from 2014 to 2020, Mercedes won all but three races three times.

But an F1 season sweep? Unheard of. So, no, Red Bull will not pull their foot off the accelerator after Verstappen clinches. Neither will their competitors – spoiling the perfect season is the biggest prize left to the likes of Mercedes, Ferrari and Aston Martin.

Speaking of, we hope the fight for second place will stay interesting. Aston Martin held it for the first six weeks and, after Mercedes jumped ahead at Monaco, kept the gap close until the Belgian GP, when the Silver Arrows vaulted to a 51-point lead. Now they find themselves in fourth, though Fernando Alonso seems to enjoy his car more than he did most of the summer. But until Lance Stroll regains his top-ten form, Aston Martin will keep looking up at Ferrari.

But there’s still time for this hunt to get interesting again. Aston Martin team principal Mike Krack circled Singapore as one of his team’s best-remaining tracks. Ferrari showed well at Austin, São Paulo and Abu Dhabi in 2022. And Mercedes’ race pace has remained steady.

And finally, we’d like to see whether Liam Lawson can secure his first career points finish before Daniel Ricciardo returns. Christian Horner confirmed Ricciardo will at least miss the Singapore race, and “it would be optimistic for Japan.” That’s at least two races left for the AlphaTauri driver to make his mark. A points finish for Lawson would be fascinating – not only for his future, but for Logan Sargeant’s future.

The Williams rookie has yet to finish in the points this year, and the pressure is mounting on him to deliver something before his contract is up.

Let’s throw it to Madeline and reader Iain for the question on everyone’s mind.

Inside the paddock with Madeline Coleman

If someone is going to beat Red Bull, where is it going to be? — Iain G.

If a team is going to beat Red Bull this year — which seems unlikely — Singapore and Las Vegas are the best bets. Street tracks are where Red Bull’s straight-line speed advantage is less of a benefit, and the difficulty in overtaking makes qualifying all important. Verstappen started eighth last year at Singapore and could only finish seventh. He still hasn’t scored a pole or won there.

Speaking after the race at Monza, Verstappen offered some pessimism for the race he thought Singapore was “not going to be the strongest weekend” for Red Bull. His teammate concurred: “It’s going to be a weekend where basically anything can happen, and hopefully we are able to have a very strong Saturday,” Pérez said. “If you don’t start in the front row, it’s very unlikely that you will have a shot at the victory.”

Rather than thinking about specific tracks, other teams need to drive clean races and not miss a step. Sainz led 14 laps at Monza before making a tiny error, and Verstappen punched that door wide open. Reliability had been perfect across the Red Bull-powered cars (which includes AlphaTauri, Red Bull’s sister team) up to Yuki Tsunoda’s failure before the Italian Grand Prix, and that (or bad luck) are the only things that seem to threaten Red Bull’s chance at F1’s first-ever clean sweep.

Williams Bought a Vowle(s)

If you’ve heard the Williams team principal speaking on F1 broadcasts and thought, “That is the voice of a very kind, thoughtful man,” then you’ll appreciate Madeline’s sit-down with James Vowles this week. It is hard to believe Madeline had less than an hour to speak with him when you get great scenes like these:

Sitting for an interview in his office at Williams’ motorhome trackside at Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps, Vowles unintentionally demonstrated his leadership style.

He started by asking questions, building a connection and creating a two-way conversation rather than a one-way interview. When a team member would pop their head into the room to flag the time, Vowles would redirect his attention to the task at hand, ensuring the interview had his full attention and didn’t get cut short. While he has the mathematical and engineering knowledge and experience needed for this world, Vowles places just as much importance on emotional intelligence.

Outside the points

Our final bit of wrap-up from the Italian GP dropped in the form of winners and losers. Spoiler: It turns out that if you win the F1 defending game, you might also end up a loser. Them’s the (over-used) brakes.

Verstappen and Red Bull sucked up all the oxygen this weekend, so I forgive you for forgetting that Hamilton and George Russell re-upped their contracts with Mercedes. You know, the story that the F1 world has waited all summer for.

Luke finally got to publish his thoughts on the deal and what it means for Hamilton’s legac–wait, I’m hearing that Toto Wolff stirred the Mercedes-Red Bull rivalry pot again.

Ah well. We’ve got two more years to talk about Hamilton, I suppose. Finally, the FIA announced that everyone abided by the cost cap last season. Will that keep team principals from griping about it in the press? Unlikely.

(Lead image of Max Verstappen: Dan Istitene – Formula 1/Formula 1 via Getty Images)