When to bet the World Cup: betting strategy for each stage

The World Cup is the biggest stage for soccer, but while everyone may be excited to watch the matches, there are many excited about the multitude of betting opportunities that will be presented.

Here we’ll dive into all the nuances of betting the World Cup as there are many things to lookout for a the tournament progresses.

However, before we capitalize on these betting opportunities, we need sportsbook to place bets. Take you pick from the top online sportsbooks below as they have tremendous offers for new customers to be the World Cup.

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• Full World Cup schedule and group standings.
• See when to bet on the US Men’s National team

The group stage offers tons of betting opportunities as you can place bets on individual matches, but you can create even more profitable bets by taking advantage of the futures market.

The theme of World Cup is taking advantage of the short and long-term futures bets. For the group stages, you can place bets on how the group will finish, which two teams will advance, and even the order in which they advance.

There are multiple groups with three good teams who will be vying for one of the top two spots in the group. To take advantage of this, back one of the two viable teams with plus money odds to advance.

Once you have your group future placed, you can then look for a hedging opportunity.

Take Group G for example. You have Brazil at the top, who is not only the heavy favorite to advance, but win the entire tournament. However, then you have two teams in Serbia and Switzerland who are evenly priced to advance.

You can bet either team to advance at odds of +100 or better. Here’s where things get interesting. They each will play Brazil and Cameroon before playing each other on December 2nd.

It is expected for them to both be 1-1 heading into that match. So what you can do to ensure profit is hedge you group future bet.

How you will do this is place a bet on the opposite team that you placed the futures bet on. In the three-way markets, both teams will be plus money to win the game outright, they may even be better than the odds you got for your future.

This hedging opportunity is available in multiple groups and will be something to monitor when the third round of group games begin on November 29th.

The market with the best odds, in terms of payout, are going to be the winner of the World Cup. This market has been out for quite a while, but you can still get solid prices on every team throughout the group stage.

What it great about hold these long-term futures is that they present multiple opportunities to hedge out.

Say you took Argentina to win the World Cup for $100 at +550. If you were to let that bet ride out until the end, assuming they make the final, it would pay out $650.

However, once they get out of the group stage, they will be playing much stiffer competition. So if you get to matchup where they would not be favored, say against Brazil in the semifinal, you can hedge you bet.

Now, the important part of this strategy, is that you need the bankroll to bet more than you wagered on you future bet to ensure profit. To continue with the example, let’s say Brazil has +110 odds to win their hypothetical semifinal match against Argentina.

You would need to bet a minimum of $91 on Brazil to profit one cent. Obviously, you would want to lock in more of a profit. Although, you could bet to win an equal payout, which in this scenario would be a $310 bet two win $651.

While many may not consider the time that you place your bet pre-match important, those who are very experienced will tell you how important it can be.

In most major sports, betting early can be the difference between winning and losing as they are based off spreads and the numbers can move quickly. The same can happen to the moneylines in the World Cup.

Soccer’s three-way markets are determined by moneylines, but they can move much faster than spreads. That movement can significantly impact your profit.

So when can you begin to capitalize on soft opening lines? The first place to begin is after the second round of group stage games.

If you noticed, the lines for each team’s first two group stage matches were listed far before the World Cup began. However, the lines for the third game are not.

This is because the lines are based off the results of the first two matches. Many things can factor into these lines, such as prior performance, injuries and specific scenario’s.

Unless, there is critical injury news, you should find your bet for the match as soon a lines are available. If you made a good bet, you will likely get the best possible number, and the best possible payout.

How do you know you made a good bet? The line will move in your favor and close at a worse price.

An example: You bet Germany to win the match at +150 and their line once the match begins is +120, then you made a good bet and achieved closing line value. Closing line value should be your goal with every bet as it is a way to have long-term success.

As soon as they are released. Markets in big events, like the World Cup, are very efficient and will move quickly.

Brazil is the current favorite to win the World Cup at consensus odd of +300. A $100 bet on them would pay out $400.

Two teams will advance from each group. So in total, 16 teams will advance from the eight groups.