Who will rule F1 in 2024? Our predictions for champions, biggest surprises and more

The 2024 Formula One season is finally upon us, as the Bahrain Grand Prix kicks off this weekend (a handy reminder that qualifying is on Friday and the race on Saturday). We’ve watched a lot of team launches, heard a lot of talk about better training and car improvements, and seen the cars get on track in pre-season testing.

Now, we’ll finally get to see what they can do when points are on the line. Which means now is the time for the members of The Athletic’sF1 team to stake out our positions on what we expect to see over the next 24 race weekends. Read on to see our picks (and justifications) for who’ll finish on top, who’ll make the most progress, who’ll surprise us all, and just how dominant Red Bull and Max Verstappen will prove to be.

Constructors’ podium

Luke Smith: Red Bull, Mercedes, Ferrari — While I think both Ferrari and Mercedes have made decent progress with their cars over the winter, and should be in slightly better shape for this season, there’s simply no stopping Red Bull going into this season. Ferrari looks a bit quicker for now, but Mercedes has shown an ability to make bigger steps over a season in the past couple of years, so I’ll tip it to pip Ferrari to P2.

Madeline Coleman: Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes — All three teams may have made design changes to their respective cars, but I expect Red Bull to run away with the title again. I’m more intrigued by the battle for second, given how close the Silver Arrows and Prancing Horse were by year’s end in 2023.

Pat Iversen: Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes — The first team needs no explanation. The only question is whether the other two teams listed here steal a win or two from Red Bull. Ferrari has two things going for it: A quicker car and two hungry drivers (Charles Leclerc hasn’t won in 32 races, Carlos Sainz is racing with a chip on his shoulder). I think Ferrari will battle Mercedes for P2 again this season, and this time, the edge goes to the team on a more consistently upward trajectory.

Alex Davies: Red Bull, Mercedes, McLaren — It seems both Mercedes and Ferrari made solid strides over the winter, while McLaren has been more circumspect. But 1) Lando Norris persistently negs himself, which for me undercuts his outspoken lack of confidence; 2) I can’t get McLaren’s brilliant second half of the year out of my mind. I think the British team squeaks by Ferrari in the end.

Drivers’s podium

LS: Max Verstappen, George Russell, Charles Leclerc — Verstappen winning the title is a given, I think, but behind him I reckon it could be quite close. I’m going to say Russell and Leclerc both win a couple of races to get P2 and P3 in the standings, respectively.

MC: Max Verstappen, Sergio Pérez, Charles Leclerc — Verstappen is a force to be reckoned with and shows no signs of slowing down. The question is whether Pérez can correct his qualifying performance.

PI: Max Verstappen, Sergio Pérez, Carlos Sainz — I think Leclerc will end his win famine this season, but Sainz will win twice. Max will do Max things, but not as Max-y as last year. And, for reasons I’ll get into later on, I think his teammate won’t be so far behind him this time.

AD: Max Verstappen, Sergio Pérez, Lando Norris — See my argument above regarding how I feel about McLaren coming into 2024. But I see no reason the two Red Bull drivers won’t once again take P1 and P2.

Red Bull win total

LS: 20 — Ferrari and Mercedes may be close enough to snare some wins from the rare Red Bull slip-ups, but nothing to make a serious dent in its total.

MC: 21 — I can’t imagine a clean sweep for Red Bull because this is the longest season in F1 history. That’s asking for a lot, both from a sustainability and reliability standpoint.

PI: 19. Call it wishful thinking (it is), but the law of bad luck comes back around for everyone — even Red Bull. Surely. Right?

AD: 22 —  What really galls me here is that if Red Bull wins 22 of this year’s 24 grands prix, it will represent a step backward from last year.

Max Verstappen win total

LS: 19 — I say he matches the tally from last year and leaves only the scraps for Pérez.

MC: 19 — There’s no question about Verstappen’s talent, but it is a tall order to ask one driver to be near perfect every race weekend. Some tracks are more difficult to pass on, and even the slightest misstep could keep him — or anyone — off pole.

PI: 17 — See above.

AD: 20 — Working off my estimated 22 wins for Red Bull, this means two wins for Pérez, matching his haul from last year. That feels about right.

Surprise pole

LS: Oscar Piastri — Through McLaren’s upswing last year, Piastri really found his feet and started to get a better idea of how to get the very most out of his F1 car. I think he’ll be a step closer to Lando Norris this year. It’ll require McLaren to make a big step forward from where it starts 2024 though.

MC: Lando Norris — Throughout the second half of last season, you could feel he was knocking on the door for his first pole position since 2021 and closer to his first F1 win. If McLaren has as competitive of a car as it did last year, it’s only a matter of time for this rising star.

PI: Daniel Ricciardo — The last ‘surprise’ pole in F1 was Kevin Magnussen for Haas at the 2022 São Paulo GP. Haas finished eighth in the constructors’ that season. I feel okay listing Ricciardo as my surprise pole with that precedent. We’ve already seen him be pretty quick in this car at qualifying in Mexico City last year, and he looked comfortable (and fast) during testing. Why not one pole this season before RB inevitably finishes P8 in the standings?

AD: Oscar Piastri — Hey, he qualified on pole for the sprint race in Qatar, no reason the young Australian can’t do it for the GP at some point this season. I’ll even tack on another prediction: When he does take pole, he’ll be super chill about it.

Surprise podium

LS: Daniel Ricciardo — RB went under the radar a bit through testing, I think, and could be in the mix for decent points from the very start in 2024. It’ll take a lot to fall into Ricciardo’s hands for this to happen but I reckon he could get back on the rostrum.

MC: Daniel Ricciardo — The emphasis is on ‘surprise’ here because, admittedly, this is a longshot just by how the team looked last year and how far ahead the top half of the grid is. However, I do think Ricciardo could be a wild card, depending on RB’s development this season.

PI: Pierre Gasly — I define a “surprise podium” as “Esteban Ocon finishing 3rd at Monaco in 2023.” That was a surprise. Alpine was a mess last year – and I’m pretty sure they’ll be a messier mess in 2024. So let’s go with Pierre Gasly nabbing a podium after everyone in front of him wrecks (safely! unharmed!) during a red flag restart at, like, Las Vegas.

AD: Alex Albon — Yes, it’ll take some chaos. Yes, this only happens if Williams has improved its car and continues to do so. Yes, Albon’s best finish last year was P7 (at Montreal and Monza). But we’re talking surprises here! I think it can happen. OK, maybe it’ll take a bunch of chaos.

Most improved team

LS: RB — I think the steps forward seen through the backend of last year from the artist formerly known as AlphaTauri will continue going into the new season, putting it ahead of the Williams/Alfa Romeo/Haas gaggle it spent last year mired within. Closer ties to Red Bull — which are drawing scrutiny from McLaren in particular — and fresh management should help. The buzz around the team is positive right now.

MC: RB — New year, new name and new leadership beyond just team principal Laurent Mekies. Although the team appeared to be making steps in the late stages of 2023, Mekies does expect the beginning part of the year to be difficult, but “we equally know that we are putting together the foundations in order to hit a development rate that will allow us to compete with the guys we want to compete with.” According to team CEO Peter Bayer, the goal is to “be a competitor on the grid at the top of the midfield.”

PI: Mercedes — I feel like everyone will say RB, so I’ll zig to their zags. In this case, ‘most improved’ means consistently qualifying/racing in the top three and claiming at least one win. In other words, an improved Mercedes will look like Mercedes again. That makes for a better fight up front.

AD: Williams — No, I don’t expect Williams to do better than P7 in the constructors’ standings in 2024. But I do think the team will strengthen its grip on its position as best of the rest. As James Vowles enters his sophomore year as team principal and Logan Sargeant looks to improve on a rough rookie season, I expect Williams to be more consistently in the hunt for points.

Most improved driver

LS: Yuki Tsunoda — The raw pace we’ve all seen from Tsunoda seemed a little more honed through the first half of last year, only for mistakes to set in later in the season (Mexico being a prime example). I’ll tip him to make another step this year and become a bit more well-rounded, offering a decent challenge to Ricciardo over the year.

MC: Logan Sargeant — It’s no secret that the American driver struggled during his rookie season, but he trained throughout the offseason, put on more weight and looked stronger during preseason testing. After finishing 21st in last season’s driver rankings, the only way is up.

PI: Sergio Pérez — Odd to say that about the guy who finished second last season, but here we are. By the end of last season, Pérez had started to lay his qualifying demons to rest. That’s a bad sign for the rest of the grid. I expect that trend to continue: We’ll see a more consistent Checo get more from the dominant Red Bull in 2024.

AD: George Russell — A funny thing will happen over the course of 2024: Lewis Hamilton will cede his leadership position at Mercedes to Russell. There’s no direct line between that process and what happens on the track, but I think the ‘promotion’ and increased responsibility will translate to more points for Russell and a higher finish than last year’s P8.

DTS Season 7 preview moment

LS: Hamilton’s Mercedes exit — It has to be, right? For how much focus was placed on his decision to stay at Mercedes in season six, it’ll be a prime story for season seven, hopefully from the very first episode.

MC: Sargeant’s comeback story — After chatting with Sargeant at Williams’s season launch at New York, I’m willing to buy into the preseason hype. His demeanor seemed different, more confident, than last season, and he even said, “It’s just been nice to, I guess, kind of find myself again.”

PI: DTS Season 7 ends with Lewis Hamilton wearing that red Ferrari firesuit … and then cuts to Carlos Sainz sitting in front of the cameras with a Mercedes hat on.

AD: Lewis Hamilton claps on the red overalls for the first time. No, this won’t happen during the season, but it will be the main storyline going into 2025, and seeing Hamilton officially shift from Mercedes to Ferrari will be its first marquee moment.

(Lead image of Daniel Ricciardo, Max Verstappen and Logan Sargeant: Rudy Carezzevoli, Mark Thompson/Getty Images)