who will stake St Leger claim in Bahrain Trophy?
The road to the St Leger began with the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot and the Bahrain Trophy is the next step on the journey to Town Moor.
This running has all the ingredients we are accustomed to seeing. We have a lightly raced Aidan O’Brien-trained son of Galileo, an unexposed Godolphin runner trying a new trip, a Royal Ascot handicap eyecatcher and a Queen’s Vase runner-up.
Saint George marginally sets the standard on Racing Post Ratings after chasing home Gregory in the Vase, with the pair nearly four lengths clear of the third.
That represented a major improvement from Saint George’s previous Doncaster handicap victory off a mark of 84 on his previous run, but his trajectory has been quite staggering as he has stretched out in trip. The son of Roaring Lion’s five runs have yielded RPRs of 67, 71, 87, 97 and 113. Whether the sharper test plays to his strengths, with the absence of a natural front-runner, remains to be seen.
Castle Way is the likeliest candidate to lead them along. It is significant he is Charlie Appleby’s chosen one this year, but the trainer’s three-year-olds seemingly lack the depth of previous generations.
From 2018-2022, backing Appleby’s runners in Britain from the Classic generation blindly would have yielded a £5.37 profit despite the fact the trainer was -£152.30 to level stakes in that timeframe.
Contrast that with this season and Appleby’s three-year-olds are -£28.28 and contributing to the majority of his losses, given he is -£30.24 overall.
O’Brien does not tend to field his number one Leger candidate here, although Capri’s brother Tower Of London is improving fast and must be respected, while James Ferguson landed this in 2022 and Land Legend deserves marking up for his King George V Handicap seventh having suffered interference. However, the early value in the race is surely with Klondike for William Haggas.
Klondike, as Saint George did at Ascot, followed home Gregory over a shorter distance at Goodwood last time and promises to relish this step up in trip.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders
What they say
Charlie Appleby, trainer of Castle Way
We purposely missed Royal Ascot to wait for this race and are hoping that the step up in trip will see further improvement, which should open up a few doors. He is in great form at home and brings a nice profile into the race.
William Haggas, trainer of Klondike
He's an improving sort who should run a good race and would have an each-way chance. It's a strong race as it should be for the money.
James Ferguson, trainer of Land Legend
He was unlucky at the start and the finish at Royal Ascot; he was running on very well. I certainly think he’s better than his handicap mark and therefore we should be taking the opportunity in these big races that Newmarket have put on. He will relish the step up in trip; he’ll be running all the way to the line. I won the race last year with Deauville Legend and I can see this lad going very close.
Saint George (grey): second to Gregory in Queen's Vase
David Redvers, racing manager to Qatar Racing, owners of Saint George
He ran a cracking race at Royal Ascot. Since then he’s thrived at home, Andrew [Balding, trainer] is very happy with him. This was always the next target and an obvious one. After this race we’ll have a clearer idea whether or not we’re heading to the St Leger or Australia. He’s a hugely progressive horse.
James Tate, trainer of Think First
He’s hard as nails. He’s just improved all year physically, takes his racing so well and it’s a £200,000 race with six runners, so we’ll give it our best shot.
Aidan O'Brien, trainer of Tower Of London
He came out of Down Royal very well and you'd be hoping to look at maybe the St Leger for him later in the season. We will find out a lot more about him here, but everything has gone well since you saw him last. He's progressing lovely.
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