Who will win in Scotland? The secret lies in looking closely at previous champions
Dundonald Links is set alongside the Ayrshire coast overlooking the Firth of Clyde on Scotland’s west coast. Just north of Troon, the rough landscape has hosted four previous editions of the FREED GROUP Women’s Scottish Open presented by Trust Golf. The first two events were held in 2015 and 2016 when the tournament was run by the Ladies European Tour (LET). In 2017, Dundonald was the host for the first year of the newly co-sanctioned event between the LET and LPGA.
The average winning score of those three editions was 8-under. Last year, Ayaka Furue won the FREED GROUP Women’s Scottish Open at Dundonald Links with a final score of 21-under. Her final-round, 10-under 62 paved the way to her first career victory. Predicting the 2023 winner will be challenging as tournament scoring in the sample size is volatile. Case in point, only 11 players finished under par in 2017 when Mi Hyang Lee won at 6-under and the 36-hole cut last year was 1-under.
The 2015 and 2017 tournaments were not played with a full field of LPGA talent. The 145 players who have descended upon Dundonald Links this week include six of the top 10 and 17 of the top 30 in the Rolex Women’s World Golf rankings. The LPGA’s last five major champions and seven of the 15 winners in 2023 are all here to compete for the $2 million purse.
We must first look at the weather when we see such variability in scoring. The 2017 tournament was contested in true Scottish coastline conditions. A year ago, the players faced far less challenging weather. Looking ahead, temperatures for this week are expected to sit in the low 60s during the day. Sweaters will be needed in rounds one and two, but by the weekend, those layers will be hidden by rain gear.
The course nestled along Irvine Bay will bring plenty of wind to complement the rain. Precipitation promotes scoring as the ground conditions will be soft, but overall, the winning score might end up closer to the 2017 total when accounting for all the elements. The par-72 scorecard measuring 6,494 yards does exhibit plenty of birdie opportunities if conditions permit. Only two of the par 4s are over 400 yards long and the average length of the four par 5s is just over 500 yards.
Believe it or not, both Lee and Furue exhibited a similar skill set en route to victory. One year ago, Furue hit 61 of 72 (85%) greens in regulation, and when you consider the course length, GIRs should be at the top of a player’s priority list. Lee managed to hit 70% in 2017’s difficult conditions. Watch out for betting favorites Hyo Joo Kim, Anna Nordqvist and Linn Grant when it comes to this statistical category. All have hit more than 73% of their GIRs this season.
The path to scoring is simple. Hit the ball close to the hole and convert the birdie opportunities. Lee averaged 29 putts per round and Furue averaged 28 in their respective victories. Links golf is won and lost on the ground. The LPGA competes mainly in the air on a majority of target-specific courses. The flatstick will separate this field significantly. Defending champion Furue still resides near the top of the putting statistics, but also does Nordqvist, Lilia Vu and Hye Jin Choi.
The course is carefully designed with 79 bunkers. Furue only ended up in one bunker and Lee just four when they each won. Avoid the 45 fairway bunkers with accurate driving in these conditions and you will save strokes. End up in more than a few of these coastline pot bunkers, and it will cost you throughout 72 holes. Both Lee and Furue were extremely accurate off the tee just like (Hyo Joo) Kim, Marina Alex, Allisen Corpuz and Megan Khang have been throughout 2023.
Another one of the tournament betting favorites is Minjee Lee. The two-time major champion is the only member of the field who has two top-20 finishes at Dundonald Links. (Minjee) Lee is ranked first in strokes gained approach and when it comes to scoring she is eighth in birdie-or-better statistics. Minjee makes the most of her ball-striking and can avoid trouble as she is also ranked second on Tour in strokes gained tee to green.
Predicting winners doesn’t have to feel like predicting the Scottish weather. Enjoy the early morning golf by selecting a couple of your own favorites. With a little emotion invested in the outcome, you’ll be amazed at how engaged you are on Sunday when the FREED GROUP Women’s Scottish Open champion is crowned.
Keith Stewart is an award-winning PGA Professional. He covers the LPGA and PGA Tour for Sports Illustrated, The Sporting News, LPGA, and PGA TOUR. If you are looking to raise your golf acumen and love inside information about the game, check out his weekly newsletter called Read The Line.
