Who will win the Six Nations?

The England players and RFU staff were warned earlier this week that they can no longer place bets on any rugby matches. They shouldn't be too concerned about losing money in the next few weeks. The odds for an England victory in the Six Nations are fairly short. The bookies have England as narrow favourites ahead of France, Ireland, Wales and Scotland. If you really want to test credulity, Italy are available at 500-1 with some bookmakers.

The Six Nations is fairly open this year. England have momentum after beating New Zealand in the autumn, a win that Matt Dawson called "maybe England's greatest ever victory at Twickenham". "I've been to every single England game at Twickenham since I was 14," he said. "And this was by far the best game I've seen." Dawson's excitement was understandable, but New Zealand were weakened by illness and Stuart Lancaster's team should not be over-confident ahead of away fixtures in Dublin and Cardiff.

France are second favourites but not even their coach, Philippe Saint-André, can predict how they will fare in the tournament: "The big problem for French rugby is consistency. On our best day we can beat the best in the world, on our worst we can lose to anyone." France were impressive in the autumn internationals, but they have three away games – at the Stadio Olimpico, Twickenham and the Aviva Stadium – and will need Frédéric Michalak to play to his potential.

If Ireland can make the most of a favourable draw, they could be worth an outside bet. France and England have to visit Dublin, where Argentina were demolished in November. Jonathan Sexton starred in that game and with Craig Gilroy on the wing and Brian O'Driscoll able to concentrate on leading the team by example rather than with the armband, Ireland cannot be ruled out.

Ireland's first match will be pivotal. They travel to Wales on Saturday lunchtime for the tournament's opening fixture. Wales have struggled since winning the grand slam last year, but they still have enough talent to cause a few shocks in this tournament. A home win against Ireland at the Millennium Stadium could set up a timely return to form. Sam Warburton has said his team's performances have dipped due to a lack of confidence, but a win on the opening day could turn things around.

Scotland suffered a poor autumn, lost at home to Tonga in their last fixture of 2012 and are without a permanent coach. Things could be better. They can look forward to three home games, but not even their interim coach, Scott Johnson, sounds convinced: "We've got to work hard on the things we need to improve before we start chasing rainbows," he said. "There's a lot of contact, a lot of defence in this game, and if we don't get that right the scoreboard will be rattling against us. As long as we get a side that gets out there and competes. If we do that, and we prepare right, Scotland can be proud of the effort and the scoreboard will look after itself."

If you put a bet on Italy at 500-1 and it pays out, send some cash this way for the tip.