Why Saudi club Al Hilal's bid for Mbappe is no 'laughing' matter
It feels like this Saudi summer was sudden. But, was it really? Before this summer, Saudi Arabia had already signalled an intent to attempt to win the bid to host the FIFA World Cup (the joint-bid has, reportedly, been withdrawn), it bought Newcastle United - a big but struggling English club - and took it back to the European Champions League in just 18 months, and it lured one of the all-time greats to its league. That Cristiano Ronaldo deal set the stage for the influx of stars this summer, most notably, Ballon d'Or holder Karim Benzema. The only major setback to the Saudi project so far has been the missing out on Lionel Messi, but more on that later. In any case, on July 24, Al Hilal, the club which tried and failed to sign Messi, shocked the football world with an outrageous world record bid of €300 million for 24-year-old Kylian Mbappe.
NBA star Giannis Antetokounmpo had tweeted suggesting Al Hilal sign him because he looks like Mbappe! Interestingly, the French international quoted the tweet with laughing emojis.
This is no laughing matter though. If it happens, that deal would decimate football's already inflated economic norms. (Thankfully, Mbappe is highly unlikely to consider the move despite the chance to pocket over half a billion euro for a one-year stint). But, look past the mind-boggling sums of money involved in the transfers to the Saudi Pro League (SPL) this summer and some of the most interesting completed deals include relatively less glamorous names. For instance, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, 28, was a key player for Italian club Lazio last season. There was reportedly interest in him from at least a couple of English clubs, but he still chose to sign for Al Hilal to play at a much lower level. Ruben Neves, 26, was captain of Premier League club Wolverhampton Wanderers. He too signed for Al Hilal. Croatian hero Marcelo Brozovic, 30, reportedly passed on Barcelona to join Ronaldo at Al Nassr. And Seko Fofana, 28, who was key in helping Lens to a second-place finish in the French league last season, has also joined Al Nassr.
All four players mentioned above are still capable of starring for European clubs. That may not be true for most of the others who have completed the move—they are either starting to decline with age or as a result of persistent injuries, or have seen their stocks fall to such an extent that they would have to take pay cuts to stay in the top leagues. But, the transfers of the likes of Brozovic have not been widely discussed because of the bigger names who moved, like Benzema and N'Golo Kante. Those relatively smaller deals are of far bigger concern to the big leagues. (Of course, such concerns would be eclipsed by an Mbappe deal, even if it is only likely to be a stopgap in the Frenchman's career.)
During China's short-lived obsession with football in the 2010s, Chinese Super League clubs had managed to lure players in their prime. Brazilian playmaker Oscar, aged 25, moved from Chelsea to Shanghai Port for a reported £60 million—an Asian transfer record. Similarly, Oscar's compatriot Alex Teixeira, 26, who was a key target of Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp, went to Chinese club Jiangsu Suning. The football world had quickly gotten used to older players going to China for one last big paycheck, but players who were very much in demand in European leagues leaving for China was a bitter pill to swallow. The Teixeira deal, especially, had, therefore, created considerable panic in European football. It could be argued that with signings like Milinkovic-Savic, Neves and Brozovic, the SPL's Teixeira moment has already come and gone. And people in the football industry, like Liverpool legend Jamie Carragher, have haplessly called for someone to stop the Saudis. Panic would give way to pandemonium if Mbappe goes.
Meanwhile, Mbappe's suitors Al Hilal, Asia's most decorated club, has also reportedly made proposals to Neymar and Manchester City starter Bernardo Silva!
Notably, every single completed player transfer, as of July 24, was done by four clubs. Al Hilal, based in Saudi capital Riyadh, Al Nassr, also based in Riyadh, the reigning champions Al Ittihad, based in Jeddah, and Jeddah-based Al Ahli (though Dammam-based Al Ettifaq signed Steven Gerrard as manager and is in talks with Liverpool captain Jordan Henderson). There are two common factors between these four clubs. First, they were the four founding members of the SPL and have traditionally been the country's big four. (But, Al Ahli got relegated in 2022.) Second, (soon after Al Ahli was promoted back in 2023) all four clubs were taken over by the state. The plan then, is clearly to promote the league around these two cities and two mega derbies. That is where Messi threw a spanner in the works.
No matter who Al Hilal sign instead of Messi, even if it is Mbappe, it will not be the same as the Argentine in terms of marketability. Moreover, Ronaldo is already at Al Nassr, which has a fierce rivalry with Al Hilal. So, if Messi had signed, the Riyadh derby could have been billed as Messi vs Ronaldo. The appeal will not be the same with any other player, even Mbappe—prime Mbappe vs a declining Ronaldo could even backfire. So, Messi opting to move to the US is a setback that the SPL cannot really recover from.
But, it will keep trying nonetheless. Paying over the odds may be considered okay if that means at least a few people will think of famous footballers when they hear of Saudi Arabia. The major issue the SPL will face is that the players it is able to attract at this stage, even if they are on the right side of 30, would probably have already sealed their legacies elsewhere. Therefore, their motivation would be strictly financial or it would be, as it would be in Mbappe's case, a short-term arrangement.
While a massive paycheck is a strong motivator, it does have its downside. Take the example of Oscar. He became immensely rich following his move to China, but he never played for Brazil again. It is safe to assume that in the past few years, not many people outside China has seen him play. So, the hugely talented Brazilian's legacy has effectively been reduced to one word: sellout. Moreover, footballers who play in the top leagues are already rich. They would have to be lured in to the SPL by giving them the chance to take their wealth from millions to hundreds of millions, as has been the case in the big deals this summer. Even then, attracting younger players or those in their peaks consistently would prove to be difficult because they would know that they can just wait till their 30s for a big-money move.
Therefore, at least in the short-term, European clubs will just try to use the SPL as a dumping ground for its overpaid and unwanted players (ironically, that is what Mbappe seems to be at PSG now). How much this will change a few years down the line will depend on how effectively the SPL can capitalise on the additional attention it will enjoy in the short term and how well it can pivot to a better strategy once the initial excitement dies down.
