Wide-open field means longshot could win 2023 Kentucky Derby

The 149 Kentucky Derby is Saturday evening at Churchill Downs in Louisville with post time at approximately 6:57 p.m. While scattered showers are expected in the 24 hours leading up to the race, the weather persons don’t think it’ll be raining by the time the crowd of 120,000-plus joins in the traditional pre-race rendition of “My Old Kentucky Home.”  Which means I'm passing on a longshot I like, Two Phil's.

The Dispatch’s horse-racing desk of so-called handicapping experts has been reconvened. The desk includes former Dispatch racing editor Scott “Dutch” Davis, former Hartford Courant racing editor Bob “Clanchise” Clancy and yours truly. Two of us really know what we’re talking about.

The Kentucky Derby is always a difficult race to rate because you’re dealing with 3-year-olds who’ve never run 1 ¼ miles, or been in a massive field of 20 competitors, or experienced anything like the atmosphere presented on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs. Last year, Rich Strike, an alternate, drew into the field and won as an 80-1 longshot. 

This year, handicapping the Derby goes from difficult to nigh impossible. There is no superstar in what is, by and large, a weak field. None of these equine athletes is without flaw.  

It’s a year to throw darts at a board, pick your favorite color or take a flyer on Raise Cain at 50-1, because you like chicken tenders (and, oh, that special sauce). 

“This race is so wide-open, it’s one of the toughest races to call that I’ve ever seen,” Clancy said. “I mean, I know two guys who’ve forgotten more about horse racing than I’ll know, and they don’t have Forte in their top five.” 

Forte (No. 15 post, 3-1 odds) is the morning line favorite; he has six wins in seven career starts. Tapit Trice (No. 5, 5-10) is the second favorite. Both horses are trained by Todd Pletcher, who is probably the best in the business right now. 

If you love Pletcher, it's a year to pick your favorite trainer. Or your favorite jockey. Or Reincarnate at 50-1, because hope is a good thing.

It’s a year to play small-stakes exotic wagers, to box a few trifectas, because you might just hit a big payday on small bet. 

“Watch the rail late, because something crazy is going to happen,” Davis said. 

It’s a year to call your 20-something daughter, who, as a child imbued with innocence, once had mystic powers when it came to picking Derby winners. She used to close her eyes and say, “Smarty Jones” and “Barbaro” and “Giacamo.” 

That was a long time ago. Emma is in another time zone now. But let’s give her a call. 

“Angel of Empire,” she said. “I always look at the horses without the odds. Read him and got the feeling it was the name of a winner. This was the fastest I’ve picked. It was instantaneous.” 

Davis is playing Angel of Empire and Forte on top of Skinner (No. 9, 20-1), Two Phil’s (No. 3, 12-1), Tapit Trice and Rocket Can (No. 18, 30-1). Davis saw something he liked in the Arkansas Derby, which Angel of Empire won easily.

Like Davis, this year "the Clanchise" has done less with the racing form and more with YouTube. He has watched all the pre-Derby prep races, over and over, looking for something that raises one of his eyebrows. 

Clancy’s left brow went up at the Florida Derby, where Mage began a sweeping move on the leaders with more than a quarter mile to the finish and pushed the field down the stretch. Forte came along on the outside to beat Mage, but, well, who likes the favorite? Mage (No. 8, 15-1) will get better odds than Forte at the Derby. 

Clancy likes Mage’s jockey, Javier Castellano, who has never won the Kentucky Derby but came close with third-place Audible in 2018, the year Justify won the Triple Crown. Clancy believes Castellano seeks redemption.

“I just have a feeling it’s going to be a Venezuelan victory,” Clancy said, including Mage's trainer, Gustavo Delgado, in the vibe.

Because Ferdinand (and Willie Shoemaker) bought me and my future wife an expensive dinner in 1986, I like longshots with late speed. It’s not a brilliant way to handicap the Derby, but this year, it’s as good as any other method.

Skinner (No. 9, 20-1) is my pick in the Run for the Roses. He has been beaten twice by Practical Move (No. 10, 10-1). But I like the way Skinner moved, with more than a quarter mile to go, in the Santa Anita Derby. It raised an eyebrow. 

Skinner’s route was compromised at the top of the stretch, and he finished third at Santa Anita. As a son of Curlin, he has stamina in his pedigree. I like that he will start next to his rival, Practical Move, in a mid-pack post. Nobody can tell who will get a good trip at the Derby, and maybe Skinner’s new jockey (Juan Hernandez) will find it. 

It’s one of those years. The Dispatch’s horse-racing desk is throwing nine horses – Angel of Empire, Forte, Skinner, Two Phil’s, Tapit Trice, Rocket Can, Mage, Disarm and Practical Move – out there. Maybe we’re missing something when it comes to the Japanese horse Derma Sotogake (No. 17, 10-1). No horse coming out of the No. 17 gate has ever won the Derby. But it's one of those years.