Wild vs. Oilers prediction: NHL odds, picks, best bets for Friday

It finally appears as though the Oilers aren’t just a Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl highlight reel with no structure in place. 

They’ve cooled down a bit since the 16-game win streak that carried them through all of January, but the Oilers have made substantial progress in playing defensively responsible hockey.

The Oilers battled back to tie the score three times against Boston in Wednesday’s 6-5 overtime loss.

Edmonton outshot Boston, 42-36, and dominated all three periods at five-on-five play.

Goaltending has been Edmonton’s Achilles’ heel throughout McDavid’s career and its inconsistency has been a major anchor in his playoff runs.

Stuart Skinner holds a -2.0 goals saved above average heading into Friday’s home tilt against the Minnesota Wild. 

While this always presents a concern with backing the Oilers, they dictated nearly all of five-on-five play in the previous two meetings against the Wild.

Both games resulted in high-scoring affairs that were split, but Edmonton has played strong hockey at Rogers Place with a 17-6-2 record and a +30 goal differential. 

Furthermore, the Wild rank last in high-danger shots — a deficiency that won’t bode well against the Oilers’ No. 2 ranked expected goals rate at five-on-five play.

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Wild goalies Filip Gustavsson and Marc-Andre Fleury have combined for a No. 27 ranked .889 save percentage.

And Minnesota kills just 74.5 percent of penalties, the league’s third-worst rate. Edmonton’s power play is humming at a fourth-ranked pace. 

I’d also get aggressive on McDavid’s props here. He’s scored two points in his only meeting against the Wild this season and has 14 in his last five games. 

THE PLAY: Oilers puckline -1.5 goals (+122, FanDuel).