World Cup 2022: Computer simulation gives Brazil best chance of winning, USA named extreme longshot
A team from the University of Innsbruck conducted thousands of simulations using machine learning technology to predict the World Cup winner. The team's forecast combines statistical models for each team’s playing strengths with information about their structure. The simulations even factor in the socioeconomic dynamics of each country. With the games taking place in Qatar and in winter months, there's more controversy and unpredictability surrounding the 2022 tournament. All the major football leagues in Europe and South America have to interrupt their usual match schedule to accommodate the tournament, which raises the risk of injuries.
After 100,000 simulations, a study has revealed the favorites and longshots of the World Cup. Brazil has the best chance of winning the tournament. Argentina, the Netherlands, Germany, France and Spain are the other favorites. The study also found that the U.S. has a 0.6 percent chance to win this year's World cup in Qatar. Researchers say computer simulations can't compare to real life.
Zeileis’ model correctly predicted the EURO final in 2008 and the World and European champion Spain in 2010 and 2012. Having good players who play in international leagues can boost a nation's chances of winning the tournament. Playing in the winter months could be a disadvantage this year.
