World Cup final prediction: Chris Sutton predicts Argentina v France

BBC

18 December 2022

World Cup final prediction: Chris Sutton predicts Argentina v France

France are not the only ones going for back-to-back triumphs on Sunday - if Les Bleus beat Argentina, BBC football expert Chris Sutton will have successfully picked the winner of two successive World Cups.

"I've had another good tournament," Sutton said. "And I'm pleased to say I've beaten the challenge of Kent the gibbon in Zagreb Zoo. He went very quiet once Croatia lost in the semi-finals."

Sutton is predicting the outcome of every game in Qatar, and became a TV star in Japan when he correctly called the Blue Samurai's shock win over Germany in the group stage - sharing his celebrity status with a Tokyo otter called Taiyo, who also got that one right.

Sutton was correct again when he backed Argentina to get through their semi-final, and was also spot on when he said France would join them in the final.

He picked the winner in two of the four quarter-finals - getting the exact score in Morocco's win over Portugal and France's victory against England - and from five of the eight last-16 ties.

He has an overall success rate of 56% for the tournament, after he chose the right outcome in 26 of the 48 group games.

Before the World Cup started, Sutton chose 12 of the 16 teams that progressed to the first knockout stage, including England, who he correctly said would go as far as the last eight.

Sutton's third-place play-off and World Cup final predictions

Argentina v France (Lusail Iconic Stadium, 15:00)

France are quite a baffling side in that I watch them with high expectations but am always left a bit bored, and thinking there must be more to come.

The holders are efficient, rather than exciting, and at the moment they remind me of a Citroen cruising along an old autoroute. They've got a couple of gears left to find, but they might well get all the way to their destination without using them.

We'd all love England to be effective like that, of course, and for us to be winning World Cups by finding a way and without a lot of fuss.

I think the French public would prefer them to play like Manchester City or Spain - well, maybe Spain in terms of possession but also taking some shots at goal - and dominate games, winning with flair and doing it in style.

But their manager Didier Deschamps is pragmatic and is not bothered what people think. They were labelled bland four years ago too, but they ended up world champions.

Instead of trying to keep the ball, France don't seem to want it at at all. Morocco had 23% of possession in their win over Spain, but managed 61% against the French.

France don't play free-flowing football, instead they carry the ball forward quickly and pick their moments - and, with someone like Kylian Mbappe in the team, they can be devastating in those moments.

Mbappe has only performed in fits and starts but that has been enough. Olivier Giroud has been a revelation and Antoine Griezmann has linked everything up.

It has worked so far, so they are hardly going to change now, are they?

Messi and Mbappe are the men for the big moments

Argentina are the same in that they don't care about having the ball, but are a team powered by emotion rather than efficiency - and Messi's tournament has also been about moments, just like Mbappe's has been for France.

After losing their first game of the tournament against Saudi Arabia, they have been under pressure ever since.

They have handled that well, and also the expectations of their supporters - that has proved too much for them in the past but, here, their fans have lifted the team with their outstanding backing and they will outnumber France in the final too.

From watching them so far, I think they will try to stay in the game early on and then wait for the spaces to open up for Messi, which is when he has become prominent. Julian Alvarez has been superb and will be a threat with his runs behind the defence but, overall, France still have more firepower.

A final for the purist?

I have got a soft spot for Argentina, and not just because of Messi, but with regards to my prediction, I am going to say France will win because I have backed them since before this World Cup started.

In terms of how they will win it, I would love to say this will be a final for the purist where there is beautiful football from both sides, but I suspect it will actually be a stop-start game, decided by moments of individual brilliance.

A lot could depend on Polish referee Szymon Marciniak and how card happy he is, though.

I've watched Argentina a lot and thought a sterner ref could have punished them with more cards in some of their games because their players seem to be on the edge a lot of the time.

So, I would not be surprised if we see a couple of red cards, especially if Argentina fall behind. I love watching them because of how passionate they are, but they will fight and scrap to win at any cost.

I was there in Kazan when they gave Mbappe some rough treatment as France beat them in the last 16 in 2018, and there will be more of that this time, I am sure.

Argentina's players are fighting for their jersey, fighting for their fans and fighting for Messi, to send him out on a high. They will have to control themselves and harness their aggression, and I am not convinced they will.

We could see some dark arts from both sides because France are not afraid of a physical battle and, if Argentina do lose, they won't go quietly.

Sutton's prediction: 1-3