Would Alabama beating Georgia in 2023 SEC championship game mark biggest upset of Nick Saban era?

There are improbable wins, and then there are upset wins.

Alabama scoring a touchdown on 4th-and-goal from the 31-yard line in last Saturday's Iron Bowl? Improbable. Alabama beating Georgia in this Saturday's SEC championship game? Upset.

But how big of an upset would it be, and would it be the biggest of the Nick Saban era at Alabama? Right now, an argument could be made that yes, it would be.

After opening as 3.5-point underdogs to Georgia earlier this month on Caesars, that spread has since increased to six points, according to Tuesday's latest odds from Caesars.

Barring a dramatic line change before kickoff Saturday at 3 p.m. CT on CBS, it will mark the 12th time in the Saban era at Alabama -- since 2007 -- that the Tide has been a betting underdog entering a game. Alabama has a 6-5 record in its previous 11 games as an underdog under Saban.

The two largest point spreads Alabama has overcome to win as an underdog have both come against Georgia. Two years ago, the Tide closed a six-point underdogs as recorded by Covers.com in the 2021 SEC championship game and won. And in September 2008, Alabama went into Sanford Stadium as 6.5-point underdogs to Georgia and won, 41-30.

If the spread for this Saturday's game increases again and hits 6.5 points, it would be the most significant underdog spread for Alabama since it was 10-point underdogs to Florida in the 2008 SEC championship game and lost.

But even if the line sticks at six points, there is a case to be made that Alabama would pull off a bigger upset this year against a top-ranked, two-time defending national champion Georgia team that has won an SEC-record 29 consecutive games compared to the upsets Alabama completed against Georgia in 2021 and 2008.

Here are the previous 11 games in which Alabama has entered as a betting underdog, with historical lines from Covers.com:

National championship game, Jan. 10, 2022 vs. Georgia

Spread: Georgia -3

Result: Georgia, 33-18

SEC championship game, Dec. 4, 2021 vs. Georgia

Spread: Georgia -6

Result: Alabama, 41-24

Between 2015 and 2021, Alabama was a betting favorite in 92 consecutive games -- the longest streak since the FBS/FCS split in 1978, according to ESPN.

Oct. 3, 2015 at Georgia

Spread: Georgia -1.5

Result: Alabama, 38-10

Between 2009 and 2015, Alabama was a betting favorite in 72 consecutive games -- the second-longest streak in college football since 1978 behind its 2015-21 streak.

SEC championship game, Dec. 5, 2009 vs. Florida

Spread: Florida -4.5

Result: Alabama, 32-13

SEC championship game, Dec. 6, 2008 vs. Florida

Spread: Florida -10

Result: Florida, 31-20

Sept. 27, 2008 at Georgia

Spread: Georgia -6.5

Result: Alabama, 41-30

Aug. 30, 2008 vs. Clemson in Atlanta

Spread: Clemson -4

Result: Alabama, 34-10

Nov. 24, 2007 at Auburn

Spread: Auburn -6

Result: Auburn, 17-10

Nov. 3, 2007 vs. LSU

Spread: LSU -6.5

Result: LSU, 41-34

Oct. 20, 2007 vs. Tennessee

Spread: Tennessee -1

Result: Alabama, 41-17

Sept. 29, 2007 vs. Florida State