2023 MLB Futures: White Sox trending up to win AL Central

It was a disastrous start to the year for theChicago White Sox, but they might be turning the tides in the AL Central, and it might be time to re-evaluate their 2023 MLB Futures.

The White Sox started the year 8-21, winning 25% of their April games with a -55 run differential.

However, the White Sox are four games over .500 in May, and they’ve won seven of their past nine games. Combine that with the brutal level of play in the AL Central, and the White Sox could be live in the division.

The White Sox are only 5.5 games back of Minnesota, and it could be time to bet on them in this market.

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On May 14, the White Sox were listed at 20-to-1 to win the AL Central at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Since that fateful day, the White Sox have only trended up.

Per Joe Ostrowski on Twitter, here’s how those odds have moved over the past two weeks:

• May 14: +2000
• May 19: +1600
• May 20: +1400
• May 21: +1200
• May 22: +1000
• May 23: +1100
• May 24: +900

And, at the time of writing on May 25, the White Sox are sitting at +650 on BetMGM to win the division.

That is a dramatic odds movement for a team still in fourth place. Still, the White Sox have one of the better collections of on-paper talent in the division, and the best team in the AL Central is the 26-24 Twins.

Ultimately, the race in the AL Central is wide open, and the White Sox have established themselves as contenders.

Unfortunately, not at this time.

FanGraphs’ ZiPS projections give the White Sox a 7.8% chance to win the division, while Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections make those odds 5.2%.

So, at the minimum, you would need divisional odds close to +1200 to take a shot with the surging White Sox.

Additionally, I don’t see anyone catching the Twins.

Minnesota is only 26-24, but they own a +45 run differential, meaning their Pythagorean record is 30-20. Add in that the Twins are 4-10 in one-run games this year, and the Twins are due for some positive regression wins.

Most of that positive regression should come from the lineup. The Twins boast a .313 wOBA but a .326 expected wOBA. They have the seventh-lowest BABIP this season (.281), but that number has finally come up recently, and now the Twins have the fourth-highest wRC+ over the past two weeks (121, .320 BABIP).

Also, the Twins’ rotation is superb (Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez). Even if Michael Kopech continues his resurgence, Dylan Cease turns it around, Lance Lynn avoids age-related decline, and Lucas Giolito keeps his ERA below 3.75, I’d still power rate Minnesota’s rotation above the White Sox’s.

So, while the division is wide open, Minnesota has a 2.5-game lead and is actually undervalued. We’ll see how the next few months play out, but I suspect the Twins will extend their divisional lead.

Also, the White Sox could cool off quickly. Sure, the White Sox have strung together seven wins over the past 10 days, but they all came against the Royals and Guardians.

Let’s see how they perform against better competition. They have sets against the Yankees, Dodgers, Mariners, Rangers and White Sox in June, and that stretch could sink them back to their pre-May 14 prices.