2023 NFL Futures Best Bets: J.K. Dobbins

Vaughn Dalzell shares why he is loving J.K. Dobbins’ rushing props and value in 2023 as he enters the final year of his rookie contract with the Baltimore Ravens.

J.K. Dobbins O/U 750.5 Rushing Yards

J.K. Dobbins O/U 6.5 Rushing Touchdowns

J.K. Dobbins missed half the 2022 season with ACL surgery after what looked like was going to be a career year for the former Ohio State Buckeye.

As a rookie in 2021, Dobbins ran for 805 yards and 9 touchdowns over 15 games and 134 carries (6.0 ypc).

In 2022, Dobbins totaled 520 rushing yards, plus two touchdowns over eight games and 92 carries (5.7 ypc) dealing with the ACL injury.

The Ravens ran the ball 30.8 times per game last year (7th) and had one of the best game scripts in football for a running back (7th). None of that should change in 2023.

Looking at Dobbins’ efficiency ratings last year, per PlayerProfiler, the Ravens’ running back ranked top 10 in true yards per carry (5.2), yards per touch (5.7), juke rate (43.4%, 2nd) and breakaway run rate (10.3%, 3rd) on limited carries/games.

Dobbins is a shapeshifter in the backfield, making at least one defender miss what seems like every play. This is also the final year of his rookie deal, so if Dobbins plans on getting paid, then a big year has to happen post the ACL injury.

In his final four games of the 2022 regular season, Dobbins ran for 397 yards and averaged 7.0 ypc. I expect more of that Dobbins and he’s due for a larger workload.

Dobbins only recorded one game of 15-plus rushing attempts in his career and never averaged a career-high 11.5 rushing attempts per game last year despite not being fully 100 percent after the ACL injury.

With this possibly being Dobbins’ last season in Baltimore because of production, injury, money, or all of the aforementioned, then expect Baltimore to get their use out of Dobbins in 2023.

I played Dobbins Over 750.5 Rushing Yards at -110 odd and his Over 6.5 Rushing Touchdowns prop at +110. I expect Dobbins to have an impressive bounce-back season in year three.

Pick: J.K. Dobbins Over 750.5 Rushing Yards (1u), J.K. Dobbins Over 6.5 Rushing Touchdowns (1u)

Bet the EDGE podcast wherever you find your favorite podcasts for more NFL picks.