A shift in the MVP odds sees Joel Embiid gain on Nikola Jokic plus LeBron James’ record chase
One of the many great things this NBA season is showing us is how much of a difference one week of basketball can make. That’s true not only in terms of wins and losses causing movement in the standings but also the narratives surrounding specific teams and how fluid the end-of-season awards races can get.
This week, I can’t help but reflect on the impressive growth of the Timberwolves and one fantastic battle in Philadelphia over the weekend.
MVP odds movement
Let me begin by saying that Saturday’s duel in the City of Brotherly Love between Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid was fantastic (sidenote — big weekend for Philly sports). It feels incredibly rare that we are able to catch two superstar players — let alone MVP candidates — healthy and available at the same time to play and put on a show. Not long after the final horn, some of my bigger takeaways from the game included how fast narratives can shift and the amount of weight a particular game can hold in the eyes of the public.
A week ago at this time, Embiid’s +800 MVP odds (+1100 a week earlier) ranked fourth at BetMGM. Seven days later, his +260 odds trail only Jokic’s +110, which fell from -105 over the course of the week. What caused the change? Three Denver losses and two Jokic DNPs may play a small role. Or how about Embiid’s mediocre (by his standards) 26-point, 10-rebound outing against the Nets? Unlikely. And suppose you’re unconvinced that either of those moved the needle. In that case, you surely won’t debate the impact of Embiid’s 47 points and 18 rebounds in Philly’s comeback win over the Nuggets on national television this past weekend. Bettors saw, bettors reacted and the sportsbooks reflect such.
But are the highs and lows of an individual game or two enough to get the lines moving at sportsbooks? It goes without saying that movement won’t necessarily sway the opinion of those who have an actual say in the MVP race. For bettors, however, timing is everything, and simply paying attention to the schedule’s marquee matchups and their results might provide you a feel for the best times to beat the odds movement and find the best value.
LeBron’s quest for the scoring title
From an out-of-nowhere trade for Rui Hachimura to Anthony Davis’ return and lots of discourse regarding late-game officiating, a lot has gone on in Laker Land over the past couple weeks. Possibly lost in the shuffle is how the Lakers have recovered somewhat well from an atrocious start to the season that was presumably going to get worse following Davis’ foot injury. And while the Lakers are continuing a playoff push, LeBron James’ quest for the all-time scoring record will surely be the talk of the next handful of games.
James entered Tuesday just 117 points away from climbing past Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for the top spot on the all-time scoring list. Clearly, the question isn’t so much a matter of if but when this will happen.
Excluding the Lakers’ game against the Brooklyn Nets last night which James didn’t dress for, they have three more games on the schedule this week — Tuesday at New York, Thursday at Indiana and Saturday at New Orleans. While another NBA record-breaking performance at Madison Square Garden would be awesome, that’s not happening. Go ahead and cross Tuesday off the list of James’ potential record-setting dates, and Thursday, too. Could Saturday be the day? He’d have to average 39 points per game over the next three to do so, which isn’t crazy considering James has four 40-point games this month, including one last week against the Clippers to officially own a 40-point game against each NBA franchise.
While passing Abdul-Jabbar this week is possible, my money is on LeBron making history once the Lakers return home to face the Oklahoma City Thunder.
T’Wolves on the rise
The Minnesota Timberwolves were supposed to take another step forward following their expectation-resetting 2021-22 season. Anthony Edwards’ Year 3 ascent was presumed to rival Ja Morant’s as he’d take on the leadership role of a legitimate title-contending team while slowly pushing himself into future-face-of-the-league territory. Meanwhile, Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert would form a unique twin-tower lineup that presented challenges for the rest of the NBA. Minnesota would become a defensive juggernaut with Gobert as the anchor alongside strong perimeter defenders such as Jaden McDaniels, Kyle Anderson and Edwards. It was all part of a plan that would jolt these Timberwolves into conversations of being the best team in franchise history. Instead, none of those boxes were checked nearly halfway through the regular season.
KAT’s injury, Gobert’s less-than-expected impact on defense and Edwards’ inability to get comfortable on the offensive end with Gobert’s presence had Minnesota hovering around the bottom of the Play-In Tournament slots. And at maybe their lowest point of the season, the T’Wolves carried six straight losses and a 16-21 record into 2023.
Yet, that seems like a long time ago now. In the new calendar year, the T’Wolves own the league’s third-best win percentage (11-5) in what’s mostly been a collective effort. Minnesota has the fifth-best defensive rating (112.0) in the NBA this month, with some of the most recent stellar defensive performances against the league’s elite offenses (Memphis and Sacramento) standing out. Unsurprisingly, the uptick has included individual excellence from the above-mentioned Gobert, McDaniels and Anderson.
Speaking of Edwards, he and D’Angelo Russell’s recent play merits some high praise. D-Lo loudly averaged just over 19 points per game this month with 46.7/ 46.3/ 87.7 shooting splits as the trade deadline nears. Anderson’s game is a bit more tranquil, but his impact isn’t going unnoticed as he continues to help close games on both ends of the floor. Meanwhile, Edwards is hitting that superstar level we’d all anticipated him reaching back much earlier in the season. You combine it all and Minnesota suddenly looks like the team many, including myself, thought it would be after I excitedly suggested Chris Finch’s squad would be a sleeper to win the Northwest Division.
Minnesota is 8.5 games behind conference-leading Denver in the division now, but the Timberwolves are in the thick of the playoff race at 27-26 entering February. The Timberwolves open February with three straight at home before a tough five-game road trip. Will we get the Timberwolves of January, who’ve seemingly turned a corner?
