Aaron Nola next team odds: Phillies favored to retain top free agent

One of the most consistent MLB starting pitchers of the last half-decade is on the free-agent market.

Aaron Nola, who has the second-most innings pitched in the majors since the 2018 season, is one of the most prized arms available this winter and odds are out for his next destination.

The Phillies, who Nola has played for during his his entire nine-year career, are the clear favorites to retain the right-hander, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.

Philadelphia is +290 to resign him, well ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals (+500) and Boston Red Sox (+550), who have the second- and third-best odds to land Nola, respectively.

The notoriously low-budget Orioles are fourth on the odds board at +700.

Baltimore, the reigning American League East champions, is in the market for starting pitching help, but may not be willing to shell out the likely $150 million-plus it will take to sign a pitcher like Nola.

The Mets and Yankees, who are also looking to add a top-of-the-rotation arm this offseason, are both +1200 to sign Nola since it seems they’re focused on Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Every team in baseball could use a pitcher like Nola, though.

The 30-year-old has pitched at least 180 innings in each of his last five full seasons, and posted a 3.65 ERA while striking out 10.2 batters per nine innings over that period.

He’s coming off an underwhelming 2023 season ERA-wise (4.46), but Nola’s expected ERA (3.77) and expected FIP (3.63) show him to be a bit unlucky.

His strikeout and walk rates were largely in line with his career averages too.

Whoever signs Nola this winter will hope he returns to his 2022 form.

Nola had one of the best seasons of his career that year with a 3.25 ERA and an even better 2.58 FIP over 205 innings to finish fourth in the National League Cy Young voting.