Action Network's NFL Best Bets For Week 4

Are the Miami Dolphins all that? Maybe not, when they go up against the No. 2 defense in total DVOA in the Buffalo Bills, and that’s what make the Bills a good bet Sunday, according to the Action Network’s John LanFranca.

That’s just one of five offerings from our colleagues at Action Network.

Among the others, bets on the under look like a good play in two games, and don’t discount a big favorite.

Every weekend throughout the NFL season, Sports Handlewill bring you five “Best Bets” from Action Network‘s experts, including their research and arguments for why each pick is a good bet.

Dolphins vs. Bills

Pick: Bills -2.5 (play to -3)
Book:FanDuel
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET on CBS
John LanFranca: Miami has the best offense in football in seemingly every metric, and it bears out in DVOA. The Dolphins’ 8.4 yards per play is also the top mark by a wide margin.

The Bills boast the No. 2 defense in total DVOA and represent Mike McDaniel’s toughest test to date. Miami put up impressive numbers against the 29th- and 32nd-ranked defenses (Chargers and Broncos), but it’s as if the market isn’t taking into consideration its performance against the 11th-ranked Patriots defense. New England held Miami to 40% conversions on third downs and 6.4 yards per play.

If Buffalo can get pressure, it will disrupt Tua Tagovailoa’s timing and his receivers. Tagovailoa’s passer rating is a near-perfect 137.7 when kept clean, but drops to 57.7 when faced with pressure.

The Bills’ real advantage will be when they possess the football; the Dolphins defense is allowing 4.75 yards per carry (28th). James Cook led the NFL in explosive rate last season and has the second-most 10-plus-yard carries through three games, trailing only Christian McCaffrey. The Dolphins defense runs the risk of tiring out if they can’t get Josh Allen and company off the field.

Commanders vs. Eagles

Pick: Under 43.5 (Play to 42)
Book: FanDuel
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET on FOX
Blake Krass: The Eagles rank second in rushing yards per game and, as a result, are also second in time of possession per game. The Eagles have won tight games by running the football efficiently, limiting opponent possessions, and grinding out games. It hasn’t been pretty, but it’s gotten the job done.

I expect both offenses to run the ball and both defenses to put up a decent fight against the ground game. That will slowly grind away the clock and limit the amount of total possessions. Both defenses should also be able to hold the opponent to more field goals than touchdowns.

Washington QB Sam Howell should struggle against the Eagles defense and he likely won’t be able to hit downfield shots he did against Denver and Arizona.

All of that should lead this game to stay under the total (43.5).

Patriots vs. Cowboys

Pick: Cowboys -6.5 or better
Book:bet365
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX

Anthony Dabbundo: As concerning as it is that Dallas’ defense struggled to match up with the Cardinals, that game broke open on two explosive broken plays from the Cardinals offense. The Cowboys have some real issues with run defense, but the Patriots haven’t been an efficient enough running team to exploit this. They rank in the bottom 10 in rushing success rate and EPA per rush.

Most importantly, New England hasn’t been able to hit explosive plays to take advantage of an overly aggressive (at times) Cowboys defense. The Patriots’ offensive line is finally getting healthy — only Cole Strange is on the injury report — but New England ranks dead last in pass-block win rate through three weeks.

As long as Martin and Biadasz play, the Cowboys should be laying the full touchdown. I’d bet Dallas -6.5 or better.

Cardinals vs. 49ers

Pick: 49ers -14 (Play to -15.5)
Book: BetMGM
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX

Blake Crass: The 49ers have scored exactly 30 points in all three of their games, and are second in the league in offensive DVOA, trailing only the historically explosive Dolphins. San Francisco has utilized a perfectly balanced attack, with the third-best pass DVOA and fourth-best rush DVOA.

The 49ers defense has been almost as dominant as the offense. The defense allowed a combined 19 points to the Steelers and Giants, and are ranked as the fourth-best defense in the NFL, per DVOA.

The Cardinals have covered in every game this season, but there’s no “ride-the-hot-hand” policy in the NFL like there can be in college football.

Teams that are 3-0 ATS are 36-49-2 (42.4%) in Week 4 since 2005. Eventually, the market adjusts to these teams as it’s really hard to continue “defying the odds” in the NFL.

Chiefs vs. Jets

Pick: Under 41.5
Book: bet365
Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC

Brandon Anderson: The Jets offense has been absolutely miserable, and it’s not just the absence of Aaron Rodgers. Zach Wilson has been terrible, but so has everything else. The Jets rank bottom three in rushing and passing DVOA and last overall on offense. The line is a mess. They can’t run the ball.

The Chiefs do not rank last on offense. They have Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs also continue to play great defense.

Primetime unders the last four years hit at 61% and are 9-2 so far this season. Wilson games with a total below 44 have gone under 64% of the time, and Jets games have finished at 41 or below in 16 of 20 games since the start of last season, including 14 of the last 15 (93%). Kansas City’s offense broke out against Chicago, but the Jets have an actual defense, so things probably won’t be so easy. This feels like a snoozer Sunday night 23-6 game.

You’re not getting the best of the number anymore, which opened a couple points higher, but I still like the under.