Bengals vs. Steelers Prediction, Pick & Odds Week 16: Saturday

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21 December 2023

Bengals vs. Steelers Prediction, Pick & Odds Week 16: Saturday

We expect a surprising receiver to emerge for the Cincinnati Bengals, with Ja'Marr Chase ruled out as we make our Bengals vs. Steelers prediction for Saturday based on the best NFL odds.

The Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) journey to confront the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7) in an AFC North rivalry showdown as a component of Saturday's doubleheader. Not only do these teams harbor mutual disdain, but the NFL playoff odds of each team will hang in the balance this weekend.

After securing three consecutive victories, the Bengals hold the No. 6 seed in the AFC. In contrast, the Steelers, having lost three games in a row since starting QB Kenny Pickett's injury in Week 13, have slipped out of the playoff picture. Will Cincinnati, the short favorite on the road, emerge triumphant and keep its postseason hopes alive?

To accompany our Week 16 predictions and Week 16 player props, here is our best Bengals vs. Steelers prediction for Saturday (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Bengals vs. Steelers prediction: Saturday

Trenton Irwin Over 11.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

With Ja'Marr Chase ruled out for Saturday, conventional wisdom would say to look at the receiving props for Tee Higgins. Well, his total is as high as 60.5 across our best sports betting sites, so the market clearly agrees with that sentiment.

The problem is that Higgins might end up getting a lot of coverage from Steelers cornerback Joey Porter Jr. Even as a rookie, Porter ranks 28th in PFF's coverage grades. He's surrendered just 20 receptions on 44 targets in 2023, according to PFF. So we're inclined to look elsewhere.

While Tyler Boyd figures to get a more significant role, no player will receive a playing time bump this weekend quite like receiver Trenton Irwin. He's logged 18 receptions on 24 targets in 2023, recording 10-15 offensive snaps in each of the last three weeks.

But the last time Cincinnati was down one of its top receivers, Irwin averaged 41 snaps during the three weeks when Higgins was sidelined between Weeks 10 and 12. He earned 10 targets over that span, turning that into six catches for 115 yards. Irwin cleared this receiving prop in all three of those games, and he's done so in every contest when the wideout has recorded at least one catch.

While most projections are more conservative for Irwin, we see a path to 20-plus receiving yards for the third-year receiver out of Stanford. It might even be worth sprinkling a little extra on his +225 value of 25-plus receiving yards at bet365.

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Bengals vs. Steelers best odds

Four of our five best sports betting apps are posting a receiving prop for Irwin, and those books have come to a consensus line of 11.5 yards. bet365 is offering the best deal of the bunch, with standard -110 odds on a prop we'd be willing to pay -120 or better to take the Over.

It's worth mentioning that Pinnacle, which features a sharper trading team than most, has moved this line from 10.5 to 11.5 and has juiced the current Over up to -122.

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Bengals vs. Steelers odds for Saturday

The Bengals opened as 2-point favorites and touched as high as -3, but the spread has since settled at 1.5 or 2. The total started at 39.5 before dropping down to 37 and then reaching a consensus mark of 38 at our best sportsbooks.