Betfair Chase Antepost Preview: 8/1 Shot Looks Overpriced in Haydock Showpiece
The Betfair Chase is one of the great staying chases every National Hunt season and a stunning list of champion horses have taken the race over the years. Plenty of stars have won the race multiple times, including three time champions Cue Card and Bristol De Mai, while the greatest chaser of his generation Kauto Star won the race a record four times. Protektorat will attempt to go back to back in the 2023 renewal for the Skeltons, but Billy Grimshaw is keen to take him on and thinks there is enough juice in the price of a runner not yet confirmed to have a small punt...
Antepost betting can be a seriously cruel game, with we racing fans having to swallow the very real possibility that our reasoning on how the race will pan out is absolutely spot on yet the potential winner does not take up the assignment. I am convinced that of the horses in the odds grids for the 2023 Betfair Chase, the most talented is not listed in the top 5 in the betting. This would usually be enough to elicit a sigh, a shrug and to move on, however I am willing to risk egg on my face and a losing ticket long before race day by backing SHISHKIN to take the first leg of the old "Triple Crown" at 8/1.
Firstly let me outline the obvious negative. His trainer Nicky Henderson, brilliant though he has proven to be over the years, is notoriously the most cautious man in National Hunt racing (Constitution Hill, I'm looking at you). The Seven Barrows master has been mulling over where to start his now proven staying star in his ten year old season and this race and the Charlie Hall are apparently the leading contenders. It is fair to say that even if this race cuts up a fair bit (it is odds on we see a five runner field or even fewer) the Charlie Hall will be the more winnable assignment at Wetherby. It is a Grade 2 after all compared to this Grade 1 event and Shishkin if sent there will probably be instilled as an odds-on favourite, scare away most meaningful opposition and win at a canter.
Now the reasons not to back him have been dealt with, allow me to make the case as to why 8/1 represents a price too good to ignore despite the risks. Shishkin was a brilliant Supreme and Arkle winner but always gave off the impression he could excel still further if stepped up in trip and last season this was proven on the track. In the end even the Ryanair proved too sharp a test for the new older Shishkin and after his impressive win over an extended three miles at Aintree, Nicky Henderson and Nico De Boinville were in agreement that his nine rising ten season would see him stick exclusively to staying chases.
He will be the top rated horse in here should he take up the assignment and I think he has the best form in the book with that Bowl win last spring at the Grand National festival. Along with the clear talent he has shown throughout his career and his ability to switch back onto his job when seemingly having an off day, I think a strongly run Betfair Chase, which this could very well be, could suit him down to the ground. HIs main targets for the season have been stated as the King George and Cheltenham Gold Cup, but this is a fine start to any season. Haydock can of course become an absolute slog if the rain gets into the ground and I would be surprised if Nicky let him run on anything worse than soft, but the potential pitfalls are factored into his price and if he turns up on good to soft in rude health then any quotes of 8/1 will be a thing of the past.
Gerri Colombe heads the market at the time of writing and as much as I think this is a wonderful young chaser and probably Gordon Elliott's best chance at a Gold Cup winner since the mighty Don Cossack, 7/4 looks very very short in here. He was of course just touched off in the Brown Advisory by The Real Whacker, a horse who could also head to Haydock and who would be a definite pace angle, and Gordon will be laser focussed on March and Cheltenham with his smart prospect.
Protektorat will be back and primed to run the race of his season when attempting to defend his title for the Skeltons. He was impressive that day, although 1/2 favourite A Plus Tard failed to fire and the race now on reflection looks sub-standard. An eleven length win over Eldorado Allen is by no means insurmountable for Gerri Colombe, Shishkin or any number of potential challengers for the Betfair crown, but with the prices looking so out of line with what they would be if Shishkin lines up then a small play at 8/1 with a multitude of firms is the way to play the race at this stage.
