B/R College Football 2023 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Week 11
For a few hours, it looked like last week was poised to be a historic gambling triumph.
All the pieces were falling into place. Winners were flying in. The vibes were immaculate.
Then, the momentum hit a wall as night came. The winning streak crumbled. And the end result is a 4-5-1 week that could have been so much more. For the year, we're now 49-46-2.
While we're above .500, we can do better. (We can always do better.)
We're on to this week, and this week is loaded with intriguing options. Before we get into this week's picks, here's what went right and wrong from the previous week.
The Good: Michigan State (+3) vs. Nebraska: There were easier wins last week, but this one was satisfying in how ugly it was. While much of the betting public was on the other side, we were on the right side.
The Bad: Mississippi State (+3.5) vs. Kentucky: On the topic of right sides, here is a wrong side. Mississippi State didn't do much of anything, and this pick was dead shortly after the game began. In fact, this is where things started to go wrong.
We're on to Week 11.
Also, how are we in Week 11 already?
For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.
Football hangovers are real, and they are a fixture of this football season and any football season.
Oklahoma State just beat Oklahoma, and the emotions that emerged from winning the last rivalry game for the foreseeable future are likely to be robust. (In fairness, this part is understandable.)
But back to the hangover; this one could linger a bit. At the very least, the oddsmakers believe it could. Despite the fact that UCF has lost five of the past six games, the Knights are just a small underdog at home.
The Pokes have won five games in a row—which includes wins over Kansas State, Kansas and Oklahoma. It should be noted, however, that four of those five games were played at home.
Road trips just hit differently, especially those after an emotional week. UCF pulls a small upset over a team with a ton of momentum.
On the other side of Bedlam, Oklahoma's push for the College Football Playoff essentially came undone.
Since beating Texas, the Sooners haven't been quite right. Back-to-back losses against Kansas and OK State have turned this season into something else.
In terms of a bounce back, however, this one seems possible. For starters, the Sooners finally head home, which is a much-needed venue at the moment. They're also taking on a team with the nation's No. 63-ranked passing defense.
While West Virginia has been much better than expected, the Mountaineers will play in one of the more difficult environments they will see all year. And stylistically, it just feels like a bad fit.
Oklahoma's season has taken a new form, but things will be right for one week.
The Hoosiers snapped a four-game losing streak with a win over Wisconsin last week, which says plenty about both teams, although probably more about the state of the Badgers.
A week later, the Hoosiers are an underdog against a team that has failed to live up to expectations. Of late, however, Illinois has shown some life.
Road wins against Maryland and Minnesota were steps in the right direction. The loss to Wisconsin sandwiched in between? Perhaps not so much.
While the Hoosiers played well on the road against Penn State a few weeks ago, the road has not been kind. Indiana will also be playing only its fourth true road game of the year, and any road trip at this point won't come easy.
The total for this game is in the low 40s, which says the kind of performance we are likely to get. Low-scoring, ugly and an Illinois cover.
It's been a minute since we really leaned into the over, and this feels like one worth jumping on.
Lost in the madness of the Pac-12, Washington State, which started the year with such promise, has lost five straight. They've lost to good teams, and they've lost to not-so-good teams. The offense, which was superb, has been less superb.
But this is a game that should repair a lot of those concerns. Although Wazzu is a slight underdog to Cal, the Golden Bears currently own the nation's No. 130 scoring defense. Washington State is better, although the No. 95-ranked scoring defense doesn't exactly inspire a lot of confidence.
It does, however, create a solid betting opportunity on a total that seems pretty reasonable, all things considered. Both teams play fast, both defenses have, well, holes, and both quarterbacks are capable of putting up points.
There are bigger games in the Pac-12 this week, but this one will have its moments.
When you consider the emotion and preparation that went to Alabama's game against LSU, a letdown of some kind is expected.
Granted, Nick Saban is a football hangover cure. He's done this before, and he's overcome these types of moments in the past. But those teams have had more talent than this one, and this particular spot feels particularly tricky.
On the topic of tricky, road trips haven't been easy for Alabama. South Florida and Texas A&M both put up solid fights, and the Crimson Tide have also played in a handful of close-ish games throughout the year.
The talent discrepancy between these two teams is still robust,although Kentucky has both the coaching and pieces to keep this game close.
Alabama will win. This is not a call for an upset. But itwill be ugly and closer than anticipated.
Wake Forest (+2.5) vs. NC State
Of late, Wake Forest hasn't played well. But this point spread speaks volumes about the kind of effort the oddsmakers expect to see from the Demon Deacons.
Middle Tennessee (-11) vs. FIU
One of these weeks, Middle Tennessee is going to actually win us money. Despite the 2-7 record, this feels like it could be the week.
Wisconsin (-10) vs. Northwestern
Wisconsin is coming off a disappointing road loss in Bloomington. At home, the Badgers get right.
North Carolina (-12.5) vs. Duke
UNC has had its issues, although this feels like a matchup nightmare for Duke. The Blue Devils don't have the offense, at least at the moment, to keep up.
