B/R NHL Roundtable: 4 Bold Predictions for the Rest of the Offseason
The dust has finally settled on the majority of free agency.
As teams struggle with the fairly flat salary cap, the offseason options are slowly dwindling down. But that doesn't mean that transaction can't happen.
We're still waiting on where Erik Karlsson will land. There are still goalies on the market for teams starved for netminders. And there's drama in Toronto because there's always drama in Toronto.
It was tough to get the B/R NHL Staff out of the pool, but we managed to do so. We canvassed them of their offseason predictions and needless to say, they delivered.
The Pittsburgh Penguins' new president of hockey operations (and acting general manager) Kyle Dubas isn't wasting time trying to make a big splash in this summer's trade market.
It's believed Dubas is trying to land a very big fish in the form of Erik Karlsson. During a July 10 appearance on the NHL Network, Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman indicated the Penguins and Carolina Hurricanes are the front-runners to acquire the San Jose Sharks defenseman.
Fresh off a career-best 101-point performance, the 33-year-old Swede earned his third James Norris Memorial Trophy. He currently sits atop our July NHL Trade Block Big Board.
Karlsson's contract is a significant obstacle on the path to a trade. He's carrying an $11.5 million average annual value through 2026-27 with a full no-movement clause. He could waive the latter for a chance to skate alongside fellow thirty-something superstars such as Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin in Pittsburgh.
Cap Friendly indicates the Penguins sit above this season's $83.5 million cap hit by over $2.3 million. Teams are allowed to be over the cap by 10 percent during the offseason but must be cap compliant when the regular season begins.
Dubas, however, proved capable of pulling off salary-cap gymnastics during his tenure as GM of the Toronto Maple Leafs. He'll weave his magic once again and put together an intriguing package offer to acquire Karlsson.
Perhaps he'll convince the Sharks to retain 40 percent of Karlsson's cap hit. Maybe he convinces the Sharks to take overpaid veterans Mikael Granlund and Jeff Petry off his hands if he packages his 2024 and 2025 first-round picks along with a top prospect as part of the return. Perhaps he gets a third team involved to spread Karlsson's cap hit around.
It won't be easy but Dubas seems motivated to make it happen. It will become the biggest trade of his NHL management career.
- Lyle Richardson
When we think back to the factors that contributed to the Buffalo Sabres missing the postseason by two points, (they were one behind the Florida Panthers but lost the tiebreaker) one was extremely obvious. Their goaltending was inconsistent and not-so-great.
The trio of Craig Anderson (now retired), Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Eric Comrie traded starts all season long trying to ride the hot hand as much as possible. That was made a little more difficult because 41-year-old Anderson started once a week and he was the best of the bunch. Devon Levi's arrival late in the season gave the Sabres a lift and he very nearly got them to the playoffs with his play.
All signs pointed toward the Sabres addressing goaltending somehow in the offseason. Maybe they'd jump into the fire and trade for Connor Hellebuyck or perhaps an expensive desperation deal to add John Gibson. But they're not going to do any of that. They're going to run it back with the guys they know.
The Sabres are going to stick by Levi, Luukkonen and Comrie and try to end the 12-year playoff drought despite calls from fans to not do exactly that. It's a gamble by Sabres GM Kevyn Adams but they believe the additions of Erik Johnson and Connor Clifton will make them stronger defensively and particularly on the penalty kill (Buffalo had the fifth-worst PK in the league).
The Sabres are going to score a bunch and be a lot of fun to watch, but now they have to make the playoffs in 2023-2024 and goaltending is going to be watched meticulously.
- Joe Yerdon
Yes. I've seen the latest reporting that mentions Jonathan Toews.
The fact that the firm representing him did not include him on its list of pending free agents ahead of the opening of the signing period on July 1. And the subsequent suggestions that the omission automatically means Toews is either done for 2023-24 or forever.
I just don't buy it.
Maybe it's the Edmonton Oilers fan in me. Maybe it's because I'm still stinging from a second straight playoff ouster by the eventual Stanley Cup champion. Maybe it's because I just played three sets of tennis in 105-degree southwest Florida heat.
Regardless of the reason, I don't think it's a done deal.
That Oilers fan in me prefers to believe that Toews wasn't included on the list because he's indicated to his representatives that if he is to return next season—which I acknowledge and concede is still a big if—it'll be in Edmonton and Edmonton only.
Why? It's simple.
Love them or hate them, there's no way to legitimately deny that the Oilers will again be among the favorites to emerge from the Western Conference next spring. They've arguably been the second-best playoff team for each of the last two seasons, which means if Toews is interested only in a team that can bring him a fourth title, Edmonton's as good as any.
Ex-Cup-winning teammate Duncan Keith wrapped up his own career with the Oilers and thought so much of the experience that he stayed with the organization in an advisor role.
Among his charges for the summer has been to keep tabs on, and perhaps kibbutz with, Toews from time to time. My guess is that those conversations haven't come to a definitive end just yet. But when they do, the fruit they'll bear is No. 19 in orange and blue.
- Lyle Fitzsimmons
You might have seen this line about NHL teams this offseason: "We have no cap room".
With the salary cap going up just $1 million for the 2023-24 season, teams have had to be prudent in how they spend their money.
For Connor Hellebuyck, the timing couldn't have been any worse.
The Vezina Trophy winner in 2020 is in his final year of a six-year $37 million signed in 2018. The 30-year-old has stated his intentions that he doesn't want to sign a contract extension in Winnipeg and the Jets are looking to recoup assets for the star goalie.
Hellebuyck undoubtedly would love to go to a contender, with the Devils high on the list. But is New Jersey willing to pay a premium price to get Hellebuyck and sign him to a lengthy and costly extension? With the Golden Knights winning the Stanley Cup with third-string goalie Adin Hill, it may pay for the Devils to find a serviceable netminder and then reevaluate at the trade deadline.
Other contenders either have a goalie, committed long-term money to a goalie (looking at you, Penguins), or simply don't have the space to land the Michigan native.
The prediction here is that he starts the season in Winnipeg and will have to be patient for an escape route to develop.
- Lucky Ngamwajasat
