Broncos to Surprise Reeling Bills on MNF?

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09 November 2023

Broncos to Surprise Reeling Bills on MNF?

TheDenver Broncos’ improved play has us eyeing them as one of the best NFL upsetpicks for Week 10 based on the best NFL odds.

After outscoring their opponents 123-33 during a three-game stretch, the Buffalo Bills have experienced a sharp decline in their performance over the last five games. Their 24-18 road loss to the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday dropped their season record to 5-4, leading some to question their playoff chances.

Buffalo is heavily favored to bounce back when they host the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football. However, Denver comes into the game with back-to-back wins, including an impressive upset victory against the Kansas City Chiefs in their last outing.

Here are our best NFL upset picks for Week 10 (odds via ourbest NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL upset picks: Week 10

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NFL upset predictions

Cleveland Browns (+230 via FanDuel) vs. Baltimore Ravens ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Despite playing without Deshaun Watsonfor most of the season, the Cleveland Browns have managed to hang in the thickof the AFC North race, entering Week 10 two games back of the first-placeBaltimore Ravens. Cleveland’s defense might be the best in the NFL right now,holding the Arizona Cardinals to just 58 total yards in last week’s 27-0shutout win. Watson is showing signs of finally being healthy, throwing for 219yards and two touchdowns without an interception in that game.

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are on aneven bigger roll, blasting the Seattle Seahawks 37-3 last week for their fifthwin in six games. However, Baltimore has historically been prone to theoccasional hiccup, losing at home in Week 3 to the Indianapolis Colts anddropping a 17-10 decision to the Pittsburgh Steelers two weeks later.

Baltimore hammered the Browns 28-3 whenthese teams met in early October, but Watson was scratched hours before thegame, forcing Cleveland to give Dorian Thompson-Robinson his first career startat quarterback. Prior to that meeting, the Browns had covered in their previoustwo games against the Ravens and hadn’t lost by more than a touchdown in theirprevious five versus Baltimore.

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Jacksonville Jaguars (+140 via Caesars) vs. San Francisco 49ers ⭐⭐⭐⭐

How often do you find a road team favoredover a team with a better record? That’s the case this week with the 6-2Jacksonville Jaguars catching a field goal at some sportsbooks as they host the5-3 San Francisco 49ers.

Not many would argue that the 49ers arethe better of these two teams, but San Francisco certainly isn’t playing likeit right now. The 49ers come out of their bye week having lost three straightafter a 5-0 start, and San Fran was held to just 17 points in each of thosethree losses. They’re also 1-3 ATS on the road this season, including outrightlosses to the Cleveland Browns and Minnesota Vikings.

Any advantage San Francisco gets from abye week is negated by the fact that the Jaguars are coming off one of theirown. Prior to the week off, Jacksonville had not only rolled off five straightwins, it had done so during a grueling stretch that saw the Jags play two gamesoverseas, return home for one game, and then play a road game four days lateron Thursday Night Football. Four of those wins came by a touchdown or more.

The Jaguars have been a dangerous homeunderdog in recent years, winning six of their last seven outright in thatsituation. Jacksonville’s defense also matches up extremely well against SanFran’s power running game, holding opponents to less than 80 rushing yards pergame on the season.

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Denver Broncos (+320 via FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Bills ⭐⭐⭐

Everyone wrote off the Denver Broncosafter they were humiliated 70-20 by the Miami Dolphins in late September, butthat may have been a mistake. Sean Payton’s crew has won three of five gamessince, thanks to a defense that is finally resembling last year’s elite unit.Over its past three games, Denver has allowed a grand total of 45 points — andtwo of those games were against the Kansas City Chiefs, whom Denver shocked24-9 before enjoying a bye last week.

While Denver has exceeded recentexpectations, the Buffalo Bills certainly have not. Sunday night’s 24-18 lossto the Cincinnati Bengals was Buffalo’s third defeat in its last five games,with the Bills’ only victories during that stretch coming by a combined 11points against the lowly New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Josh Allenhas already thrown nine interceptions this season, and the offense is averaginga paltry 20.2 points per game since early October.

Yes, it’s hard to imagine the Billslosing an important night game at home to Denver, but it was also hard toimagine Buffalo needing late defensive stands to avoid losing to the Giants andBucs in other primetime home games over the past month. Given the opposingdirections these two teams are headed, I’ll gladly take a shot with the restedBroncos at this fat price.

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NFLupset picks made 11/8/2023 at 2:25 p.m. ET.