Broncos vs. Bills Prediction, Picks, Odds Week 10

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10 November 2023

Broncos vs. Bills Prediction, Picks, Odds Week 10

Buffalo hosts Denver to wrap up the NFL's Week 10, as we make our best Broncos vs. Bills predictions for Monday Night Football based on the best NFL odds.

The last time the Broncos took the field, they pulled off a huge 24-9 upset of the Kansas City Chiefs. They face the Bills following their bye, and Buffalo has lost three of its last five games.

Josh Allen has thrown an interception in five straight, while Broncos’ quarterback Russell Wilson has thrown just four all season. Will the Broncos stay hot on Monday night, or will the Bills avoid dropping to .500?

As part of our NFL predictions for Week 10, here is our best Broncos vs. Bills prediction for Monday Night Football (MNF odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Broncos vs. Bills prediction: Monday Night Football

Broncos +7.5 (-108 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

If every bettor could easily forget preseason expectations, we don’t believe anyone would have the Bills favored by more than a touchdown this week. Their defense has injuries at every position, and their offense has struggled to put points on the board over the last five weeks. During that span, their average output per game is just 20.2.

Meanwhile, the Broncos avoided their letdown week by being granted a bye following their 24-9 upset win over the rival Chiefs. Though the defense is tied for last in points allowed per game, Denver's allowing just 15.0 points per game over its last three contests. That’s the second-best mark in the league for any team over their last three contests.

Both of these teams have a turnover margin of zero this season. However, those season totals don’t tell the whole story. Over the last three weeks, the Broncos are averaging a turnover margin of plus-1.0. The Bills are tied for the league’s worst turnover margin during the same span with minus-1.3.

These are two teams heading in opposite directions, and even if the Bills do pull out the win, we don’t expect them to win by more than one touchdown. Allen and the offense turn the ball over too much, and Wilson and his unit don’t.

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Broncos vs. Bills best odds

DraftKings is giving us +7.5 for -108, which makes it the obvious place to wager. We love getting the extra half-point for the Broncos, so we recommend getting in now. However, keep an eye on this line throughout the week. FanDuel has the spread at -7, but with the price it's asking for the Bills, it’s clear the number is going to grow.

We expect bettors to overwhelmingly support the Bills this week. Perhaps our best sports betting apps will disregard that action, but there is a chance that the support forces oddsmakers to push this number to +8.5. At that point, you may be able to get the Broncos at +7.5 for +105 or better.

Broncos vs. Bills odds for Monday Night Football

The total opened at 46.5, and it has already gone up to 47 at both DraftKings and bet365. Despite the Under hitting in the overwhelming majority of primetime games this season, 56% of bettors are still backing the over in this game. This number could continue to climb, but we don’t think it will ever hit 48.

The Bills opened as 8.5-point favorites, but the spread has already dropped as low as seven at two of our five best sports betting sites. DraftKings, bet365, and BetMGM all have the spread sitting at 7.5. At the moment, most bettors are backing the Bills, so we don’t think this number will ever drop below the key number of 6.5.