Bruins vs. Maple Leafs odds, prediction: target the total in an elite duel
Ahead of Thursday’s marquee NHL contest at TD Garden, we’re set to offer Bruins vs. Maple Leafs odds and a prediction.
These two sides occupy the first two spots in the Atlantic Division with Boston in the lead and Toronto in second. Neither have much to play for at the moment in terms of playoff seeding, but have positive records of late: Boston is 9-1-0 over their past 10 while Toronto is 6-3-1.
The Bruins, who own a 2-1 edge in the season series, are -150 home favorites with the Leafs priced at +125. The total is set at six goals, juiced -110 each way.
Total Under 6 Goals (-110)
Two of the first three games between these teams cleared this total, but I question if there are similar offensive fireworks in what’s essentially a meaningless game.
Assuming Linus Ullmark starts for the Bruins, the Bruins should do enough defensively to shut down a high-powered Maple Leafs offense.
Over their past 10 games at home, the Bruins are allowing 2.41 expected goals per game and fewer than two goals in all but one of those games, per naturalstattrick.com.
The lone exception? A home game against an outstanding Oilers offense that faced Boston backup goaltender Jeremy Swayman in net.
In addition to that outstanding defensive record, Boston owns a brilliant goaltender in Ullmark who rescues them from dangerous situations. Per hockey-reference.com, Ullmark leads the league in goals saved above average with 47. The next closest netminder is Ilya Sorokin with 32.
Across the entire season, Boston is third in expected goals against at five-on-five and sixth in xGA in all situations, per moneypuck.com. That gives them an edge over Toronto, who are sixth and eighth in the respective offensive categories.
But, this is also a Bruins offense that has benefited from some poor goaltending against the Leafs in past meetings. Despite scoring 10 goals across the three meetings, Boston generated only 6.42 expected goals in all situations with their peak coming in at 3.18, again per naturalstattrick.com.
This is also a Maple Leafs defense that has looked outstanding across the entire season. Toronto sits fifth in expected goals against in all situations and 12th in xGA at five-on-five, according to moneypuck.com.
Further, this shapes up as a good sell-high spot on the Bruins offense, which has faced some easy opposition of late.
Over its past three games, Boston has generated north of three expected goals all four times, yet that’s come against the Blues, Penguins, Blue Jackets and Predators, teams 20th or worse in xGA in all situations.
Given the change in opposition level, we’ll back a low-scoring game in Boston.
