Buccaneers vs. Bills Predictions, Picks, Odds Week 8

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23 October 2023

Buccaneers vs. Bills Predictions, Picks, Odds Week 8

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills look to shake off disappointing losses when they meet in Week 8, and we make our best Buccaneers vs. Bills predictions for Thursday Night Football based on the best NFL odds.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter on a two-game losing streak, scoring just 19 total points. The Bucs committed two turnovers against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 7 and are now 0-2 on the year when turning the ball over at least 2 times.

The Buffalo Bills are off to their worst start (4-3) since 2018, and their 29-25 loss to the New England Patriots in Week 7 dropped them to 1-3 in one-possession games this season. The Bills have won five consecutive Thursday night games.

Here is our best Buccaneers vs. Bills prediction for Thursday Night Football (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Buccaneers vs. Bills prediction: Thursday Night Football

This wager is a fade of one of the most popular weekly trends, as primetime Unders are 134-87-3 over the last five seasons and have cashed in 12 of 19 games this season. While the Buccaneers and Bills each had terrible halves in losses last week (Tampa Bay had three second-half points, and Buffalo scored three points in the first half), we still expect this game to exceed the projected total on what will be an unseasonably warm late-October night in Orchard Park.

Tampa Bay committed two turnovers and punted twice amid five second-half possessions in Week 7. Still, the Buccaneers shot themselves in the foot with zero touchdowns in two red zone possessions. We expect quarterback Baker Mayfield and the offense to bounce back against a banged-up Buffalo defense that the Patriots carved up. New England more than 20 points for the first time this season against the injury-ravaged Bills and QB Mac Jones had two passing touchdowns with zero interceptions after posting zero touchdowns and committing seven turnovers during a three-game losing streak from Weeks 4-6.

Bills QB Josh Allen committed two more turnovers last week (an interception and a lost fumble) and has not had consecutive turnover-free games in nearly three full seasons. Thus, we expect another Allen turnover to either result directly in Buccaneers points or to set them up with good field position at least once on Thursday.

However, we also expect a bounce-back from a Bills offense that entered last week ranked second in yards per play (5.98). Tampa Bay may have only allowed one opponent to score 21-plus points this season, but it has faced just one quarterback inside the top 12 of the league in Total QBR. Allen entered last week ranked third in that metric (74.8) and second only to Kansas City Chiefs signal-caller Patrick Mahomes in EPA (47.0) and should provide the sternest test that the Buccaneers have faced to this point.

This line would likely be higher if not for three Desmond Ridder fumbles, all in the red zone last week, which kept the scoring down in Tampa Bay’s matchup with the Atlanta Falcons.

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Buccaneers vs. Bills best odds

Though all of the best sports betting apps are in unison with a total of 42.5 points, FanDuel is our go-to shop, given that it is the only one charging less than the standard -110 vig to back the Over.

Those looking to back Buffalo on the point spread should be wary of Josh Allen’s 7-8-1 ATS record on short rest, while Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield is 20-20 ATS as an underdog (12-24-1 ATS as a favorite).

Buccaneers vs. Bills odds for Thursday Night Football

FanDuel and DraftKings had the lookahead total for this game at 43.5 points last week, but 38 combined points from the Buccaneers and Bills in Week 7 forced oddsmakers to open at a slightly lower number. We are getting in on this total before it rises, as 71% of the early wagers have backed the Over. Both teams have been profitable Under teams, as Tampa Bay is 5-1 to the Under, while the Under has cashed in four of Buffalo’s seven games.

All of our best sports betting sites are in unison with the Bills as -7.5-point favorites, though DraftKings has -105 odds to lay the points, while FanDuel and BetMGM are juiced to the favorites at -115 odds. The first significant line movement at any sportsbook thus far is at DraftKings, which has its spread quickly bet down from -7.5 to -7 before returning to -7.5, all within two hours. There has been solid two-way action on the point spread (54/46 in favor of the Bills) in early betting.