Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction, Preview, and Odds

Buffalo is 10-6 and should be in the playoffs, but a loss to Miami could put them out at 10-7. A win would not only mean the AFC East title, but the second seed behind Baltimore. They can still clinch a playoff spot if the Steelers lose or if the Jags lose. So they may have clinched a playoff spot before the kickoff Sunday night, but they do need to win to grab the division title.

At one point, in the middle of the season, it looked as though the Bills would have no chance to catch Miami. But winning four straight games over Kansas City on the road, Dallas at home, the Chargers on the road (24-22), and New England (27-21) last week has put them in position. The key has been the play of Josh Allen and RB James Cook, who has helped rejuvenate their running game.

Allen wasn't great last week against the Patriots going 15-of-30 for 169 yards with a pick. James Cook was held to 48 yards on 16 carries, while Allen added 44 yards with two TDs.

On the season, Allen has 3,947 yards passing, 27 TDs, and 16 picks with 457 yards rushing and an incredible 15 TDs. Cook has 1,086 rushing yards and two TDs with a 4.8 yards per carry average. He added 41 catches for 429 yards with four TDs and earned his first Pro Bowl berth.

Defensively, the Bills have been solid, allowing 309.2 yards per game (10th), 198.4 passing yards (7th), and 110.8 rushing yards (15th). Veteran pass rusher Leonard Floyd leads the team with 10.5 sacks. Overall, the offense averages 368.3 yards per game (5th), 238.1 passing yards (10th), and 130.3 rushing yards (7th)_ per game with 26.9 points per game (6th).

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Miami has had a strong season and they've won five of their last seven games. They'd rather not limp into the playoffs as a wild card coming off a 56-19 defeat at No. 1 seed Baltimore. This was a matchup for the first seed in the AFC with two of the best teams vying for the top of the hill. Miami started strong, scoring the first TD, and then allowed a TD. But they went right down the field in the second possession and Tua Tagovailoa hit Tyreek Hill in the back of the end zone for an easy touchdown that would have given the Dolphins a 14-7 lead. Hill dropped the pass and Miami never recovered.

What Miami needs in this game is for some key offensive weapons to return. RB Raheem Mostert, who set a franchise record of 21 total touchdowns, missed the Baltimore game due to an ankle injury. WR Jaylen Waddle (ankle) also missed the game and both are listed as questionable for the Bills' game. CB Xavien Howard (foot) is not expected to play, but at least Miami has a solid veteran CB duo with Jalen Ramsey and Eli Apple.

Waddle has 72 catches for 1,014 yards in 14 games, while Tyreek Hill is having a phenomenal year with 112 catches for 1,717 yards and 12 TDs. However, Hill is not only dealing with an ankle injury, but his house was on fire in South Florida on Wednesday afternoon and caused a lot of damage (fortunately his family is fine).

Tagovailoa is having a good season, completing 69.6% of his passes for 4,451 yards with 28 TDs and 12 INTs (had 2 last week). Rookie RB De'Von Achane has 744 yards rushing with seven TDs rushing and three TDs receiving.

Also on the injury front, Miami lost top EDGE rusher Bradley Chubb due to a knee injury late in the game last week and he's out for the season. Chubb had 11 sacks and six forced fumbles.

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Insiders Status:

Buffalo doesn't necessarily want a shootout, but they've won three straight games against Miami in that fashion, going well over the total. Miami's defense was shredded last week and will struggle again without Chubb and Howard. Allen, though still turnover-prone at times, needs to have a big game passing and running for the Bills to get the No. 2 seed. James Cook should bounce back from a mediocre game last week against a tough Patriots' defense.  Tagovailoa still has Achane as an explosive weapon in the backfield and as a receiver. Miami has gone over in four of their last six games.