Cheltenham Champion Hurdle betting preview: Tips and best odds

talkSPORT

13 March 2023

Cheltenham Champion Hurdle betting preview: Tips and best odds

The Cheltenham Festival 2023 kicks off on Tuesday, on what promises to be one of the most exciting days of Racing of the year.

Cheltenham Champion Hurdle Prediction

Constitution Hill – 4/11 bet with bet365
State Man – 10/3 bet with William Hill
Vauban – 14/1 bet with Spreadex

The game loves and thrives off superstars, and in the case of the Champion Hurdle at 3.30 on Tuesday, we have the opportunity to see if CONSTITUTION HILL can crown himself a Champion and etch himself into that fully fledged club of elite individuals. Unbeaten in all five starts over Hurdles, he has barely had to break sweat to get the job done in any of his victories, and the winning margins really are fairytale stuff. The closest any horse has got within the Seven Barrows superstar is 12 lengths, as he has oozed quality and charisma at every turn. The memory which still lingers large is the destructive performance in last year’s Supreme Novice Hurdle in which he simply toyed with the opposition – including stablemate Jonbon (only time that horse has lost) by 22 lengths.

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This season it has been plain sailing, two starts, two emphatic wins, as he has seen off stable companion and previous Champion Hurdle winner Epatante in the minimum of fuss. As for this year’s renewal of the Champion Hurdle, it is hard to envisage any situation in which any of his 6 rivals are good enough to get him beaten – if he is to lose it will be an unforeseen error of some bizarre act of god stopping the 6-year-old from maintaining his unbeaten tag. I expect him to win and in good style, but maybe winning by 12 lengths may be asking a bit much, or is it? Either way, he’s the megastar lining up at this year’s Festival and it will be great to crown him a Champion with a scintillating success.

STATE MAN is no mug. Other than falling on his debut at Leopardstown in 2021, he has won every single race for current connections, including the last four at Grade 1 level. He was the handicap snip of last year’s Festival as he got the job done in classy style in the County Hurdle, and dispatched Honeysuckle last time out with the minimum of fuss. The noticeable improvement for State Man has been in the jumping department – he looked a little bit sticky at his obstacles on a few occasions last season and again on his seasonal reappearance in the Morgiana Hurdle when he was a little high at few of his obstacles. He has become much slicker in that area and it will be interesting to see how he is deployed tactically.

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My gut feeling is he will be ridden on the front end to try and pose a question of Constitution Hill from an early stage. We saw him able to do the opposite in the County Hurdle last season though, so I suppose he looks tactically versatile. I actually think he has every chance of getting Constitution Hill off the bridle and ask him to go through the gears – the likelihood is that Nicky Henderson’s charge will go through them and pull away, but perhaps we may see a moment in which State Man gives the great horse a momentary headache.

VAUBAN was an impressive winner of last year’s Triumph Hurdle, and so far this season he has been running to a decent level without perhaps kicking on in the manner in which many would have hoped. He has finished runner-up to State Man on both starts this season, where his jumping has let him down on more than one occasion when trying to mix it with the big guns out of Juvenile company. He brings a Festival win on his CV to the table, but on the evidence we have seen this season he still has a lot to do in order not only get on terms with State Man, but then take his form to the next level. Even if his jumping does brush up, that probably won’t be enough in itself, and third place is probably the best connections can realistically hope for.

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I LIKE TO MOVE IT is a progressive sort who won the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham earlier this season, then failed to see out 2m4f in the Relkeel Hurdle next time out. He got back to winning ways in superb style when running away with the Kingwell Hurdle by 17 lengths. The Nigel-Twiston-Davies trained representative enjoys the venue and has untapped potential, but would arguably prefer spring ground. Given the manner of his most recent victory, he has to be part of the conversation for the minor honours with the trainer very bullish about his horses’ chance.

The rest of the line-up comprises of last season’s third past the post, ZANAHIYR who was being considered for the County Hurdle, but didn’t get any respite from the GB Handicapper, so connections have decided to have another crack at this. After more than one lacklustre display this season it looks a tall ask to see him getting involved in the shake-up here. Davy Russell takes the ride in what is likely to be his last ever ride in the race.

NOT SO SLEEPY was fifth in this last year, running with plenty of credit, and will run here before potential retirement. Philip Kirby trains former Henry De Bromhead inmate JASON THE MILITANT, who looks out of his depth in this company, for all that recent rainfall will have aided his chances.

So this is a race that revolves around Constitution Hill, who should get the job done and can cement his name amongst the Hurdling greats. There are no secrets in the market, and State Man can follow him home. It remains to be seen if the following Hurdles, like the Coral Cup on Wednesday and Stayers ‘ Hurdle on Thursday, will be less clear-cut.