Cheltenham Festival antepost tips: Queen Mother Champion Chase best bets

Antepost racing tips: Champion Chase

0.5pts e.w. Captain Guinness in Champion Chase at 20/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3) – no lower

0.5pts e.w. Haddex Des Obeaux in Champion Chase at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3) – no lower

Make mine a Guinness

The Tingle Creek at Sandown on Saturday will likely throw up one or two clues for the Queen Mother Champion Chase, which at present looks one of the less troublesome races at Cheltenham in March.

The absence of Energumene means there will be a new champion, but punters have eyes only for the Arkle 1-2 from last year, with 20/1 bar El Fabiolo and Jonbon. There isn’t a great deal of depth to the market, and most of the horses quoted are more likely to head elsewhere.

Jonbon is a strong second favourite for the Champion Chase, and a very short price to win on Saturday, which it’s fair to say he probably will, but there could be a big shake-up if he fails to win at Sandown, and two of his Esher rivals are worth examining as potential market movers.

CAPTAIN GUINNESS is not an attention-grabbing horse, but he is very consistent at two miles and was better than ever last year, finishing second in the Champion Chase behind Energumene, and filling the same spot behind Jonbon in the Celebration Chase at Sandown when rather setting the race up for the winner.

He clearly has his work cut out to reverse that form, but he settled much better than is often the case when winning the Fortria at Navan on his return and put up what looks a career best in the process.

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I think he has more chance of beating Jonbon on Saturday than the odds suggest, especially if Jonbon is allowed to stride on as he did at Cheltenham in the Shloer Chase, and he certainly appreciated being given a lead late into the race by Dysart Dynamo at Navan.

It doesn’t really matter whether Captain Guinness beats Jonbon on Saturday as long as he runs well, as he doesn’t stay further than two miles and has only the Champion Chase as a target at Cheltenham.

He’s a solid 20/1 chance each-way but will obviously get much shorter if he beats Jonbon on ground he will relish at the weekend, so now is the time to get involved for small stakes. He has plenty of form which should see him hit the frame in March, and has the beating of all bar the top two on the form he’s shown on his last few starts. If he continues to settle better in his races then he’s capable of improving his form as tendency to fight his rider has definitely compromised his finishing effort, as it did on the final day of the season at Sandown.

Ignore Moore improver at your peril

HADDEX DES OBEAUX is a different type altogether, in that he’s yet to show form good enough to compete at Grade 1 level but has more potential than any other candidate in his division after a novice campaign which promised much but was truncated by injury.

Haddex des Obeaux improved massively since unseating on his chase debut at Newton Abbot a year ago and would have been quietly fancied for the Arkle at Cheltenham before injury intervened. He jumped to his left when a creditable second at Kempton on his second chase start, but his jumping was the most impressive part of two wins since in handicap company, leading throughout to win at Doncaster and Warwick on contrasting ground.

Haddex des Obeaux was most impressive in winning at Warwick, jumping those tricky fences with zest and galloping on strongly to win easily by 19 lengths from Galop de Chasse and Third Time Lucki, and the form has been boosted by subsequent wins for all three of those in behind.

He looked fit enough on his return at Cheltenham and was still disputing the lead, albeit looking vulnerable, when falling at the final fence at Cheltenham in October. That was a mighty run off an absence as he was carrying plenty of weight for one so inexperienced, and that race has worked out, with runner-up Triple Trade winning at the Paddy Power meeting and Notlongtilmay (fourth in October) second in the Paddy Power itself behind Stage Star.

Haddex des Obeaux is now rated 150, and while he will need to progress again, Gary Moore has done very well with similar types in Sire de Grugy and Editeur du Gite in the last decade, both of those running in handicaps before progressing to win in open Grade 1 company over fences. Indeed, the fact that Haddex des Obeaux is preferred to stablemate Editeur du Gite (who is rated 9lb higher by the handicapper) in this Grade 1 contest tells its own story, and the six-year-old could rate much higher by the end of the season.

Once again, defeat in the Tingle Creek doesn’t necessarily damage Haddex des Obeaux’s chance at Cheltenham, and a third-place finish could give connections enough encouragement to continue in top-class company. If he does any better than that, and I’ve backed him at 20/1 to win the Tingle Creek, so I hope that he does, there won’t be any 50/1 left in the market place (66s with the odds firm at the time of writing), so now is the time to get with him initially.

I’m not averse to topping up on the bet on either, as defeat in the Tingle Creek doesn’t spell the end by any means, but the market does tend to favour winners. In the case of Captain Guinness, Henry de Bromhead is of the opinion that he’s unsuited by Leopardstown, but may still run there over Christmas, where he’s unlikely to beat El Fabiolo.

Once again, he wouldn’t be hurting his place prospects if running respectably in defeat, but his odds are likely to lengthen in that scenario, which suits me fine.

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