Cheltenham Festival: Key Ryanair Chase contenders analysed by Sky Sports Racing expert Mick Fitzgerald
With Nicky Henderson's Shishkin the one to beat in the Ryanair Chase, we have got just the right person to speak to when taking an in-depth look at the Cheltenham Festival contest.
The Seven Barrows star stormed back to winning ways in the Ascot Chase last month, looking every bit the horse everyone had hoped to see in last year's Champion Chase.
He is now a general 4/6 favourite to take the Grade One Ryanair on Thursday, March 16, with the main challenge appearing to come from a number of Irish rivals.
Henderson's former stable jockey Mick Fitzgerald analyses four of the key contenders...
Shishkin
Just in case we needed any more evidence that Nicky Henderson is a brilliant trainer, we got it via Shishkin in the Ascot Chase, with that jaw-dropping 16 lengths victory over the progressive and in-form Pic D'Orhy.
The biggest thing of all with Shishkin, and the training performance that I liked from Nicky, is he didn't put a timeframe on getting the horse back to the track after the Tingle Creek. He gave the horse all the time he needed to get back sparking.
Shishkin has always loved his jumping, always comes alive on the schooling ground and Nico de Boinville knows him well and I think he felt there was a good chance the horse was back in good form going into the Ascot Chase, but didn't want to put the horse under pressure and say it out loud.
At Ascot, it was nice to see Shishkin race comfortably within himself going back out in distance, something Nicky and Nico very much wanted to see. He did have his wind done earlier in his career, but it was just a case of trying to start that season off with all bases covered.
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At Ascot, I still wondered what Shishkin would find turning for home when Pic D'Orhy got him off the bridle, but the winner was so strong through the line and a repeat performance simply sees him win the Ryanair.
That is the biggest and impossible thing to answer: Can the horse back up after 26 days? Because when a horse puts in that kind of performance, big on the clock and big on the figures, it's hard for them to back it up in a short space of time. That said, on figures, and handicapping, Shishkin can probably still run nicely below his peak performances and still win this.
The early signs at home are fine and I love how pleased Shishkin looked with himself crossing the line at Ascot with his ears pricked. He didn't look like a horse out on his feet.
The New Course at Cheltenham should be ideal, going left-handed compared to Ascot, but at Ascot I noticed there wasn't a marked issue with Shishkin going to his left. The emphasis on stamina on that track will suit, especially as the fourth last has been moved a few times now.
The one and only worry is after 26 days since his last race, can the same Shishkin turn up at Cheltenham in similar form? He's got the right man guiding him to get him there so if he does run up to his best again, they simply won't see which way he went.
Strengths - Quite simply, he is the best horse in the race.
Weak spot - The only worry is if the run comes a bit soon after the Ascot Chase.
Janidil
Janidil is a horse whose connections have looked at different trips with throughout his career, but for me, this intermediate distance of the Ryanair Chase suits him best, as he isn't short of pace.
As a novice hurdler he was fifth to Monkfish in an Albert Bartlett over three miles before finishing second to Energumene over two miles as a novice chaser. As an open-class chaser later in his career, he has run behind the likes of Galvin (Savills Chase) and Conflated (Irish Gold Cup) over three miles, but has always tended to show his best form over two-and-a-half miles.
He was second in the race last season behind Allaho, although like most horses who come up against a peak form Allaho, he was beaten out of sight. Janidil has no Allaho to beat this year although Shishkin will be a sizable potential stumbling block.
He at least comes into this year's Ryanair in good form, and fresh, too. I'm not sure why we have seen him so late this season, but it's hardly a negative with Cheltenham in mind and I love what he did in winning the Red Mills Chase from odds-on favourite Haut En Couleurs.
You can be sure Willie Mullins will have left a bit to work on and he must have liked how the race didn't turn into an end-to-end gallop, allowing Janidil to not only win, but also not have a hard race.
At Gowran Park, Janidil showed me he still retains all of his old ability and as a nine-year-old, he is likely to now be at the peak of his powers.
It's obviously going to be tough for him to turn over Shishkin, if he is anywhere near his best, but you'd prefer Janidil's prep of the two, and Janidil has shown twice now he has been able to perform to a very good level when put under the microscope proper at Cheltenham in March.
No doubt he's a big each-way player given he is versatile in terms of pace setups and also a more relaxed horse these days, but I would like to see rain for him.
Strengths - I really liked his prep at Gowran, and the Ryanair test will bring out the best in him.
Weak spot - Instead of Allaho, he's got a Shishkin to beat this year.
Envoi Allen
I think it's fair to say Envoi Allen hasn't turned out to be the horse we all thought he could after his Champion Bumper and Ballymore Novices' Hurdle wins at Cheltenham not too long ago. There is certainly a feel of 'what could have been' with him, but it's hard to be too down on a two-time Cheltenham Festival winner who has also placed in a Champion Chase.
It was great to see him back in the Grade One winners' enclosure at Down Royal at the start of the season, fending off Kemboy, Conflated and Galvin in the Ladbrokes Champion Chase over three miles, where I just loved how he dug in and galloped out under Rachael Blackmore.
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Envoi Allen has maybe developed his own way of jumping as he has got older or maybe he was a bit rusty mentally on his first run back, but with those leaps, to still beat the calibre of horses he did on the day showed to me plenty of fire still burns.
An Envoi Allen in a good place is a dangerous horse so the market will hopefully be a guide as we get closer to the race. At 12/1, he's a good each-way bet or maybe one to look at in the 'betting without Shishkin' market on the day.
Strengths - Deep down, and if in good order, I think is classy enough.
Weak spot - His profile is a bit in and out and we must acknowledge his poor run at Kempton.
French Dynamite
Looking at French Dynamite, I'd be the first to say his form doesn't look good enough to win a Ryanair, especially with Shishkin in there, but having looked back over his replays, I forgot how much I loved his run at Cheltenham earlier in the season when second in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at the November Meeting.
This horse has a really nice way of going and is a fine jumper of a fence. His front-running style will be suited by the New Course in a race that one: doesn't look to have a lot of early speed in it and two: could cut up quite badly by the time the Festival comes.
Under that scenario back on nice spring ground, which he seems to enjoy, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him lead the Ryanair field a merry dance and still be in front two out. Now, you suspect the likes of a Shishkin will go by him easily on all-known form, but they won't all go by him if Mouse Morris can produce him in good order on the day.
Strengths - I love his style of racing in a race where he might get an easy lead.
Weak spot - He doesn't look good enough to win so clearly needs to improve.
