Cheltenham tips: Ruby Walsh day one preview

sportinglife.com

13 March 2023

Cheltenham tips: Ruby Walsh day one preview

He was speaking on this week's Paddy Power Media’s ‘From The Horse’s Mouth’ podcast presents Cheltenham Day 1 Tipping which features host Patrick Kennelly together with Walsh and regular Pod favourite Rory Delargy.

You can listen to the podcast on the link below and read Ruby's race-by-race thoughts too.

13.50 The Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

I’ve said it a few times now and I’m not going to change my mind – I think the best horse in the race is Facile Vega. I know he has that shocker to overcome at Leopardstown at the Dublin Racing Festival when he was beaten 20 lengths by Il Etait Temps, but I think the real Facile Vega ran at Christmas when he beat the same horse by four lengths. His work has been good at home and I’m not pushing anybody here, it’s a race that I will probably watch myself.

I think Facile Vega is the most likely winner, there’s no way I’m going against him is currently where I’m coming from. Il Etait Temps obviously has the form with Facile Vega and is a very good horse but he has to improve, he was fifth in last year’s Triumph and he has to get forward from there – looks like he has and Diverge improved from Christmas to win at Punchestown when he bolted in, fast horse by Frankel, wears a tongue tie for the first time, not sure the slow ground will be playing to his favour. Dark Raven he beat Doctor Bravo at Christmas, but I think he was well found out at the Dublin Racing Festival and I’d be surprised were he to turn the form with Il Etait Temps.

Selection: Facile Vega

14.10 The Sporting Life Arkle Novices’ Chase

I think El Fabiolo has shown us he can clout one and knows exactly how to save himself so you’d have to be with that. I think Dysart Dynamo will improve Jonbon though – I know I’m pro making the running with horses but the horses that make the running need to be leaders and I’m not sure Jonbon is a leader. I think he’ll be a better horse with something actually giving him a tow so I expect him to improve, but I think El Fabiolo has as well. I think El Fabiolo will win the race as regards having a bet, I’d prefer Saint Roi each-way at 8/1with the nine runners.

I think with Dysart Dynamo in there, the three of these are going to go hard and there’s no way the three of them are going to keep going and I think Saint Roi will come and pick up the pieces. How many pieces he picks up is the question and at 8-1 each-way I’d be with him. El Fabiolo definitely to win the race, but from a value point of view I’d be going the other way.

Selection: El Fabiolo to win, but the value each-way is Saint Roi

14.50 The Ultima Handicap Chase

As regards picking one, I have a sneaky suspicion for Fanion D’Estruval with Lucy Turner claiming five. I know he has top weight but that brings him back down to 11st 9lb and at 33/1 [now 25/1] each-way in a race I don’t have a massive strong opinion on, I’d prefer to be having something each-way on him and be hoping he’ll be staying on past plenty of tired rivals.

Selection: Fanion D’Estruval each-way

15.30 The Unibet Champion Hurdle

I think with the likes of Not So Sleepy and Jason The Militant in, it probably makes it a little even bit more straightforward for Nico de Boinville. Both of those like to go forward so you’re looking for a front runner, you’ve got both of them and I Like To Move It, that’s three of the seven that will go forward so it becomes an even more tactically easier race for Nico de Boinville to ride. Obviously then he doesn’t want to be right behind Not So Sleepy for a start because God knows what he’d do and you most certainly don’t want to get brought down on a 3/1 on shot by a 100/1 shot.

Whereas they’ll add pace for him, they may make it a little bit tricky as in regards does he go in or stay out but I would imagine he won’t get behind them. But he’ll ride him very uncomplicated up there right behind that pace, if they’re not going quick enough, Nico won’t be afraid to go on and whatever happens, Nico will put this horse upsides at the top of the hill and he will start to up the ante from there. I think he’s the best horse, I wasn’t sure I suppose leaving Cheltenham last year – I thought well is that real or was it just the make-up of the race making him look spectacular when Dysart Dynamo and Jonbon went too quick, but what he’s done this season would make you believe yeah last year’s Supreme, my eyes weren’t lying, it was spectacular, I think he’ll win, I think State Man will chase him home and I’m afraid with seven runners it doesn’t matter then what’s going to be third.

Selection: Constitution Hill beats State Man

16.10 Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle

Brandy Love – obviously Paul picked her, she will have improved considerably from her run at Punchestown and going left-handed will definitely be a huge factor for her, big help to her. Marie’s Rock obviously changes this race completely and I was against Honeysuckle and with Marie’s Rock chucked in there, I think it will be even harder again for Honeysuckle. Honeysuckle is what my heart wants to win here, even though I’m in the Willie Mullins camp, it most definitely is for everybody that’s associated with Honeysuckle and the year they’ve had.

I would gladly stand on the roof of the ITV truck and roar Honeysuckle home but I’m not sure it’s going to happen. It’s the result I would love to see here more than any other result this week but unfortunately I don’t think it can happen. As regards picking something to fancy here, I think those three mares on top Honeysuckle, Marie’s Rock and Epatante, I think they’re going to make very good younger mares great prices in this race. I think Brandy Love at 13-2 [5-1 now] is a great each-way play, I would be slightly worried about the rain for Echoes In Rain, but the one at a massive price, who’s very lightly-raced and has turned the corner completely in recent times at a massive price is Shewearsitwell at 25-1 [now 16-1]. I thought she was really good at Christmas when she beat Queens Brook in Leopardstown.

She has a rating of 148 which puts her above Theatre Glory, puts her above Queens Brook, puts her above Love Envoi and a pound behind Brandy Love and she’s 25-1. There’s each-way, there’s 10 runners I just think she could sneak in the money at a massive price each-way, but I’d be going with the two Willie Mullins’ mares each-way Brandy Love and Shewearsitwell.

Selection: Brandy Love and Shewearsitwell each-way

16.50 Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

Tekao had a cracking run at the Dublin Racing Festival behind Lossiemouth and Gala Marceau or Gala Marceau and Lossiemouth actually so that’s rock solid form. Hasn’t been missed by the handicapper, has 11st 5lb to carry but Mark Walsh has picked him out of three possible rides for JP McManus so you’d have to respect that call. Was no match for Comfort Zone at Navan and then beat Ascending at Leopardstown. He’s by Doctor Dino so there should be no issue with stamina but he did look a little bit weak in Navan finishing, I thought Byker was quite good at Naas and then didn’t get much of a run behind Sir Allen.

Rachael obviously is an interesting booking for Bad, I’m not even going to try to read that form or make head nor tail of it because I’m struggling to figure out the Irish and English stuff let alone the French. Risk Belle had a heavy fall on her last start, I think Tekao if he gets up the hill is a decent horse so I’d be with him, as regards each-way I think with cheekpieces on for the first time Sundial could be interesting. I think if you go strictly on numbers through his win at Navan in a mile and six maiden back in October where he beat Uxmal, Believe In Science and Summer Gale, but Believe In Science is rated 72 and Sundial beat that over 11 lengths, almost 12 lengths so make him mid 80s flat horse and you look at his weight and rating here, he’s just got in as number 20, he’s a rating of 120 for Padraig Roche, last year’s winning trainer, he just could be interesting at 12-1 [14-1 now].

Selection: Tekao. Also thinks Sundial is interesting each-way

17.30 WellChild National Hunt Chase

You’re hoping Gaillard Du Mesnil is far too good for these, his run in last year’s Brown Advisory might be good enough when he was third behind L’Homme Presse and Ahoy Senor, beat Churchstonewarrior at Leopardstown, was no match for Mighty Potter at a shorter trip either side of that, but he does look the one to beat.

If you’re picking a hole in him could just raise the question did he get home in last year’s Irish Grand National behind Lord Lariat, when he pokes away on that occasion and a mistake at the second last most certainly didn’t help him. I think he’ll be very hard to beat, Gordon is throwing plenty of darts at him in Chemical Energy, Fakiera, and Minella Crooner, John McConnell is having a go with Mahler Mission but I think it’ll all set up for Gaillard Du Mesnil and he’ll be hard to beat in the lucky last. If Willie Mullins has had a blow out before then, this fella will get him out of trouble.

Selection: Gaillard Du Mesnil

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