Christmas Day Raiders vs. Chiefs game odds, predictions, and player props

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The Chiefs look to find consistency as they head toward the postseason, while the Raiders cling to what remains of their evaporating playoff hopes as the AFC West rivals collide at Arrowhead on Christmas Day.

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Three of the Chiefs’ five losses were due to inexcusable self-inflicted mistakes, summing up the defending Super Bowl champions’ season thus far. Dropped passes have been the primary culprit for most Chiefs’ misgivings. Despite their 37 dropped passes, four more than any other team, the Chiefs have the opportunity to close out the season with three straight wins against inferior teams.

No disrespect to the Raiders, but the Chiefs are 5-2 at home, with one loss coming in the season opener against the Lions and the other to the Bills two weeks ago, which could have been avoided had Kadarius Toney stayed onside before the snap.

While the Raiders have shown signs of promise under interim head coach Antonio Pierce, they are far too inconsistent, particularly on the road, where they’ve won two out of seven contests.

Divisional matchups between archrivals usually nullify the on-paper disparity, but with the increased adversity they’ve faced this season, the Chiefs won’t be in a festive mood, an ominous prospect for the Raiders. The Chiefs know the importance of playing in front of their raucous fans to open the playoffs, a motivating factor that cannot be ignored.

In addition to those intangibles, the Chiefs match up well against the Raiders. The Raiders are 0-8 when rushing less than 25 times this season. While they’ll want to run more, their league-worst rush attack will probably prevent them from doing so.

That should force Pierce’s team to air it out more often, which sounds good in theory. However, the Chiefs boast the NFL’s fifth-best pass defense, posing more problems for the road team. Moreover, the Chiefs are 9-1 when possessing the ball longer than their opponent this season, while the Raiders have allowed an average time of possession of 32 minutes and 49 seconds, the NFL’s most.

Finally, the Chiefs are 8-4 when forcing one or more turnovers this season. That’s also potentially problematic for the Raiders, who’ve turned the ball over 25 times, which is tied for the third-most. Look for the Chiefs to finally assemble a near-flawless performance, win, and cover.

Isiah Pacheco is back after missing two games with a shoulder injury. The Chiefs’ running back should have joy running against one of the league’s most porous run defenses. The Raiders have the 23rd-ranked rush defense, allowing 124.9 yards per game.

Las Vegas’ run defense is even worse on the road, giving up 166 yards per game in its last five on enemy terrain. Pacheco scorched Green Bay for 110 yards and exceeded 64.5 yards in three of the four games prior to his injury absence.

It’s imperative for the Chiefs to out-possess the Raiders, buoying Pacheco’s chances of hitting the over.

Travis Kelce is rounding into the type of form you’d expect as the playoffs near. He has notched at least 81 receiving yards in three of the previous four games, including a 91-yard haul at Las Vegas in Week 12.

Rain is expected in Kansas on Christmas Day, making it all the more important for Kelce to step up and provide Patrick Mahomes with a quick and high-probability outlet. The Raiders are middle of the pack against tight ends, allowing 51.1 yards per game.

Kelce saves his best for Arrowhead Stadium, where he’s gone over 66 yards receiving in four out of five games. That excludes the labeled home contest when the Chiefs played the Dolphins in Frankfurt, Germany.

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