Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians odds, picks and prediction
The Cincinnati Reds (61-51) and Cleveland Indians (54-55) are tabbed for a Monday makeup game at 6:10 p.m. ET at Progressive Field. Let’s analyze the lines around the Reds vs. Indians odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Luis Castillo is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. Castillo is 6-10 with a 4.09 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, and 3.8 BB/9 in 127 2/3 IP across 23 starts this season.
- Owns a 1.80 ERA and 11.5 K/9 in four starts since the All-Star break. Has posted a 1.95 ERA over his last six road starts.
- Is yielding ground-ball contact 53.7% of the time. Cleveland struggles against ground-ball pitchers.
LHP Sam Hentges is the projected starter for the Indians. He is 1-4 with a 7.86 ERA, 2.01 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, and 5.2 BB/9 in 44 2/3 IP across 17 games, including eight starts.
- Makes this start as the opener for an Indians bullpen game. Appeared in back-to-back games on Aug. 3-4 in first MLB action since July 7.
- Fronts a Cleveland bullpen which has trailed off a little in the second half but still own’s the league’s fourth-best ERA (3.44).
Reds at Indians odds, lines, picks and prediction
Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:26 a.m. ET.
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Prediction
Reds 5, Indians 3
The Reds roll into this makeup game of a May 9 rainout under a full head of steam. Cincinnati is coming off a four-game sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates and is 10-2 over its last dozen games.
The Reds have tallied 6.75 runs per game on the strength of a .935 OPS over that span. Cincy has gotten into the NL postseason picture by playing .667 ball (22-11) since July 1.
Cleveland has essentially fallen out of contention. The Indians are 12-20 since July 1, but are coming off a 2-1 series win against the Detroit Tigers and have started to hit better as of late (.776 OPS last 11 games).
Cincinnati has been a solid play over the last month and Cleveland has been a consistent fade candidate. But the Reds have now burned through their upside in the lines.
Both clubs are too far over their skis with their current records and support stats. STEER CLEAR of a juice-laden money line here.
FANTASY BASEBALL:BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition.
The most value in this betting matchup comes from Cincy having a more rested bullpen and from the Reds relief corps being likely counted as a problem area (5.82 ERA in the second half) when it is really more of a neutral factor (league-average expected ERA figures).
Consider a partial-unit play on CINCINNATI -1.5 (-110).
The Over is more than 10 games over .500 on the betting logs for both clubs. On a warm, wind-out night in Cleveland, that upside trend is figured into a lofty total.
With Castillo’s effectiveness and ground-ball stuff, the sway of both bullpens, the one-game “series” nature of the contest, there is some solid lean toward an Under.
Add in both teams’ offenses being overcooked compared to expected-runs analysis of support numbers and Statcast data. BACK UNDER 9.5 (-107).
